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00:00:00
I think the chances that this ceasefire
00:00:03
will hold are not good at all. The idea
00:00:05
of ethnically cleansing greater Israel
00:00:08
has been wired into Zionism from the
00:00:11
very beginning. This is why you had
00:00:13
massive ethnic cleansing in 1948 and
00:00:16
1967.
00:00:18
And here after 2023, you had a big war.
00:00:21
And the Israelis always see big wars as
00:00:24
an opportunity to ethnically cleanse.
00:00:26
The fact is the United States is not
00:00:29
going to cut off its aid and assistance
00:00:32
to Israel. It's just not going to
00:00:34
happen. And President Trump has never
00:00:36
given any indication that he would do
00:00:39
that. When President Trump says to
00:00:42
Benjamin Netanyahu, "If you don't accept
00:00:45
a two-state solution, I will cut off all
00:00:48
aid. Then I will apologize to you and
00:00:51
say that you were right and I was
00:00:53
wrong."
00:00:55
Amid the positivity and relief about the
00:00:57
prospect of peace in Gaza, not
00:00:58
everyone's been thrilled by the sight of
00:01:00
the US president honoring Prime Minister
00:01:02
Netanyahu in the Knesset. The fact
00:01:04
remains that more people now than ever,
00:01:05
including among Trump's base, are deeply
00:01:07
uncomfortable about Israel's influence
00:01:09
on US politics and deeply skeptical
00:01:11
about the prospects of a lasting peace
00:01:13
while Netanyahu is still in power. For
00:01:15
his analysis, I'm joined now by
00:01:17
international relations scholar,
00:01:18
Professor John M. Sharma. Professor M,
00:01:20
great to have you back on our sensive.
00:01:23
I'm glad to be back. Pierce,
00:01:25
>> it it feels like a day of history today.
00:01:29
What is your assessment of the
00:01:31
ceasefire, of the dramatic release of
00:01:34
all remaining living hostages, uh and of
00:01:36
the scenes in the Knesset with President
00:01:38
Trump? What what what is your view of it
00:01:40
all?
00:01:43
>> Well, I could make a number of points.
00:01:45
First of all, it's wonderful to see the
00:01:47
hostages released
00:01:49
uh for their sake and for their family's
00:01:52
sake. Uh and it's wonderful to see the
00:01:54
Palestinian prisoners released as well.
00:01:57
Uh that is all a net positive. Uh in
00:02:01
terms of President Trump and his
00:02:02
performance uh in the Israeli Knesset,
00:02:06
it was vintage Trump. Uh he's one of the
00:02:08
greatest showmen uh of all time. His
00:02:12
ability uh to put on a rock and roll
00:02:14
show is just not to be underestimated.
00:02:17
Uh I don't think there's any other
00:02:19
politician uh in our history or on the
00:02:23
planet in this point in time who can
00:02:25
operate before an audience as well as he
00:02:29
does. >> Yeah. >> Now with regard to substance
00:02:32
uh which is of course the key issue uh I
00:02:36
think that this hostage exchange this
00:02:39
temporary ceasefire and hostage exchange
00:02:42
is definitely a move forward. But the
00:02:47
two critical questions on the table are
00:02:50
number one, will you get a permanent
00:02:52
ceasefire? Will the ceasefire hold? And
00:02:55
then number two, will you get a genuine
00:02:58
peace agreement uh at the end of this
00:03:00
entire process? And I think there is
00:03:03
zero chance you'll get a peace
00:03:05
agreement. And I think the chances that
00:03:08
this ceasefire will hold are not good at
00:03:11
all.
00:03:12
>> Why?
00:03:16
Well, the Israelis are bent on
00:03:19
destroying Hamas and more importantly,
00:03:23
they're bent on ethnically cleansing the
00:03:25
Palestinians from Gaza. That's their
00:03:28
principal goal. They have not defeated
00:03:31
Hamas. Uh, and there's no way that
00:03:34
they're going to end up disarming and
00:03:36
defeating Hamas as a result of this
00:03:38
ceasefire. It's just not going to
00:03:40
happen. And I can explain why. And
00:03:42
furthermore, the Israelis are not going
00:03:44
to completely leave Gaza as long as
00:03:47
Hamas is not defeated. Uh, and given
00:03:50
that situation coupled with the fact
00:03:54
that uh, Netanyahu and company are
00:03:57
determined to drive the Palestinians out
00:03:59
of Gaza. Uh, it's only a matter of time,
00:04:02
I think. I hope I'm wrong. I think uh,
00:04:06
before the ceasefire breaks down and
00:04:08
we're back to conflict. By the way,
00:04:10
Piers, you want to remember right before
00:04:12
President Trump took office, he took
00:04:14
office on January 20th. On January 19th,
00:04:18
a ceasefire was put into place. And that
00:04:21
ceasefire lasted until March 18th when
00:04:24
the Israelis broke it. But over the
00:04:26
course of that ceasefire, the January to
00:04:28
March 2025 ceasefire, 33 Israeli
00:04:32
prisoners were released and five Thai
00:04:35
prisoners were released. So, we have a
00:04:37
precedent here. But the fact is after
00:04:40
this earlier hostage exchange uh it
00:04:43
broke down, the ceasefire broke down and
00:04:45
you were back to the genocide and my
00:04:48
great fear is that that's what will
00:04:49
happen this time.
00:04:51
>> The thing that I was most concerned
00:04:53
about in the last few months was the
00:04:55
increasing rhetoric from the likes of
00:04:57
Smodri and Bengave in the Israeli
00:04:59
government, the hard right element of
00:05:01
that government where they were talking
00:05:03
in the most brazen way about ethnic
00:05:05
cleansing. I mean, they were making it
00:05:06
crystal clear that they now saw the
00:05:08
mission as kicking Palestinians out,
00:05:11
cleansing Gaza, as they put it, and
00:05:13
taking that land, which they believed
00:05:16
is, you know, their religious right. Um,
00:05:20
but what's interesting to me is today,
00:05:22
coupled with all the scenes of hostages
00:05:24
going home and Trump and the Knesset and
00:05:26
so on, you also saw thousands of
00:05:28
Palestinians going back into where their
00:05:33
remains of their homes are um to try and
00:05:35
start rebuilding their lives. That is
00:05:38
not consistent with my fear that Israel
00:05:42
was really plotting to expel them all
00:05:44
and keep them out. Are you not
00:05:46
encouraged by the scenes of so many
00:05:48
Palestinians being allowed to go back to
00:05:51
where their homeland was?
00:05:55
>> It's hard not to feel good about seeing
00:05:58
the Palestinians return to their homes.
00:06:01
Uh it it warms the cockals of my heart,
00:06:03
although it's terribly depressing to see
00:06:06
what's happened to their homes. But the
00:06:08
more important question, Pierce, is what
00:06:11
is the political settlement here? There
00:06:14
are two big questions. who is going to
00:06:16
run Gaza?
00:06:17
>> In other words, is there going to be
00:06:18
Palestinian self-determination?
00:06:21
Are the Palestinians going to run Gaza?
00:06:23
That's number one. And then number two,
00:06:26
what is the political horizon? What is
00:06:28
the endgame here? And with regard to the
00:06:31
question of who is going to run Gaza
00:06:34
now, it's not going to be the
00:06:35
Palestinians. It's going to be uh
00:06:38
President Trump and apparently Tony
00:06:41
Blair and some of the Arab armies in the
00:06:44
neighborhood are going to provide
00:06:45
security, but the Palestinians are not
00:06:47
going to uh have self-determination
00:06:50
here. They're not going to run Gaza. And
00:06:52
then more importantly, in terms of the
00:06:54
long term, there's not going to be any
00:06:56
two-state solution. There's no political
00:06:59
solution here. Uh so this one's just
00:07:02
going to go on and on. I mean, you're
00:07:04
very downbeat about it, but others who
00:07:07
are involved at the sort of sharp end of
00:07:09
negotiations, they do believe that out
00:07:12
of the hell of the last two years, there
00:07:14
is a genuine opportunity and a genuine
00:07:16
collective will from the neighboring
00:07:19
Arab and Muslim countries, including
00:07:21
Turkey, Egypt, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
00:07:25
to try and use this as a way of getting
00:07:29
to a two-state solution. Why are you so
00:07:31
pessimistic about it?
00:07:34
>> I mean, Prime Minister Netanyahu has
00:07:36
made it unequivocally clear on countless
00:07:39
occasions that there's not going to be a
00:07:41
two-state solution.
00:07:42
>> He has. But what if he's not
00:07:43
>> unequivocally,
00:07:46
it's a position that's widely shared in
00:07:49
Israel. And after what's happened over
00:07:51
the past two years, do you think any
00:07:53
Israeli is going to be interested in a
00:07:55
two-state solution? Probably the number
00:07:58
you can count on one hand. uh it's just
00:08:00
not going to happen. The Israelis have
00:08:03
already de facto annexed Gaza and de
00:08:06
facto enex the West Bank. Their
00:08:09
principal goal now is to ethnically
00:08:11
cleanse the Palestinians out of those
00:08:14
two areas. The idea of ethnically
00:08:16
cleansing greater Israel has been wired
00:08:19
into Zionism from the very beginning.
00:08:22
This is why you had massive ethnic
00:08:24
cleansing in 1948 and 1967
00:08:27
and here after 2023 you had a big war
00:08:30
and the Israelis always see big wars as
00:08:33
an opportunity to ethnically cleanse and
00:08:36
that's what they are trying to do.
00:08:38
>> Okay. But there are two things I would
00:08:39
say about that which may counter that uh
00:08:42
rather doomladen narrative. One is
00:08:44
President Trump who has set his stall
00:08:46
and his reputation and his legacy on
00:08:50
this being a lasting peace. This is as
00:08:52
by his own admission on the plane Air
00:08:54
Force One last night. This is the
00:08:55
biggest moment of his life that's
00:08:57
unfurling here. And I think he is
00:08:59
determined to try and bring lasting
00:09:01
peace and he is key to Israel's ability
00:09:05
to continue prosecuting a war against
00:09:08
Hamas or to ethnically cleanse the
00:09:10
Palestinians. He's made it clear there
00:09:11
can be no annexing of the West Bank. The
00:09:14
Palestinians must be allowed to return
00:09:16
home. So I'm encouraged by that. And
00:09:17
there's a secondary issue which is more
00:09:20
of an economic issue which is that
00:09:22
before October the 7th Saudi Arabia was
00:09:24
making a lot of signals that they wanted
00:09:26
to join the Abraham Accords which would
00:09:28
have a very significant financial
00:09:31
economic benefit for Israel if that
00:09:33
happened. And that's been put on hold
00:09:35
for this war. But, you know, the signals
00:09:37
again coming from Saudi Arabia is if
00:09:39
this all gets resolved and if there's
00:09:41
peace in Gaza and they can move towards
00:09:44
a two-state solution or at least have
00:09:46
the the sort of planks for that to go
00:09:48
ahead, then they may join the Abraham
00:09:51
Accords too with all the benefit that
00:09:53
would come to Israel. So, there are two
00:09:55
things there which I think would
00:09:57
slightly counter your your narrative.
00:10:03
>> Well, I would make two points. First, I
00:10:05
think you greatly underestimate, peers,
00:10:08
how deeply committed the Israelis are to
00:10:11
ethnically cleansing both Gaza and West
00:10:14
Bank and the West Bank. The Israelis now
00:10:17
have a situation where there are roughly
00:10:19
as many Palestinians as there are
00:10:22
Israeli Jews inside of greater Israel.
00:10:26
And this is an unacceptable situation
00:10:28
for most Israelis. and they're
00:10:30
completely committed to ethnically
00:10:33
cleansing Gaza and then the West Bank. I
00:10:36
think the evidence is overwhelming on
00:10:38
this. Now, you say President Trump sees
00:10:40
this as a great opportunity to prove
00:10:42
that he's a statesman and he can bring
00:10:44
peace to the Middle East. I think in
00:10:46
principle that he'd love to do that, but
00:10:49
I've written a book with Steve Walt on
00:10:51
the Israel lobby. And there's absolutely
00:10:53
no question in my mind that if President
00:10:56
Trump gets rough with Prime Minister
00:10:58
Netanyahu, Netanyahu will turn to the
00:11:01
lobby and the lobby will force Trump to
00:11:04
back off. There's no way Trump is going
00:11:06
to get tough with Netanyahu if he
00:11:09
violates the ceasefire. Remember, he did
00:11:12
that in March on March 18th. That's
00:11:14
>> not think he's already got tough with
00:11:15
him. I I think the catalyst for what's
00:11:18
what we've seen today uh unfur the last
00:11:21
few days. I think the catalyst was
00:11:23
Israel's attack on on the Hamas
00:11:25
negotiating team in Doha which was
00:11:28
unbelievably ill advised. It was a
00:11:31
catastrophic failure. They didn't kill
00:11:33
anyone from the Hamas negotiating team.
00:11:34
They killed a Qatari security guy and
00:11:37
other people unconnected with Hamas. And
00:11:40
the approprium this brought uh on Israel
00:11:43
from all the leading uh leaders of the
00:11:46
Middle Eastern countries and states
00:11:47
around there was tremendous. They all
00:11:50
got on the phone to Trump and then an
00:11:51
extraordinary thing happened. Donald
00:11:53
Trump made Netanyahu get on the phone
00:11:56
and apologized to the prime minister of
00:11:58
Katar. I've never heard of anything
00:12:00
quite like that happening. It was a
00:12:02
public humiliation for Netanyahu and it
00:12:05
showed me that that Trump does wield a
00:12:08
lot of power. I mean, if Trump was to
00:12:09
suddenly say, "We are withdrawing all
00:12:12
military support and financial support
00:12:14
for Israel," then Israel could not be
00:12:16
the superpower that it is in the Middle
00:12:18
East.
00:12:20
>> You're absolutely right. There's no
00:12:22
question about it. Israel is amazingly
00:12:26
dependent on the United States. Uh
00:12:29
Israel, when I was younger, prided
00:12:32
itself on the ability to provide for its
00:12:34
own security. Israel did not want to be
00:12:37
in a situation where it had to rely on
00:12:39
another country for its defense and it's
00:12:42
reached a point where it is extremely
00:12:44
dependent on the United States and this
00:12:46
is not good from is for Israel from
00:12:49
Israel's point of view. But the fact is
00:12:52
the United States is not going to cut
00:12:55
off its aid uh and assistance to Israel.
00:12:58
It's just not going to happen. And
00:13:00
President Trump has never given any
00:13:03
indication that he would do that. Uh
00:13:07
when President Trump says to Benjamin
00:13:09
Netanyahu, "If you don't accept a
00:13:12
two-state solution, I will cut off all
00:13:14
aid, then I will apologize to you and
00:13:18
say that you were right and I was
00:13:20
wrong." But he has never even come close
00:13:22
to that. As much as both you and I would
00:13:25
like to see that happen,
00:13:28
>> when they talk about an interim
00:13:31
uh kind of administration in Gaza and
00:13:34
want to include Tony Blair, how feasible
00:13:36
is it that Blair could be credibly
00:13:38
involved in something like that? Trump
00:13:40
has been saying he have to look at it
00:13:42
today, but there's been a lot of unrest
00:13:43
there about Tony Blair's involvement
00:13:45
given his track record with Iraq and so
00:13:47
on. >> Yeah.
00:13:50
Yeah. I think that Trump is beginning to
00:13:52
back off on the idea of putting Tony uh
00:13:55
Blair on the board of peace. I think
00:13:57
there's no question about that. But the
00:14:00
key issue you want to ask yourself,
00:14:02
peers, is who is going to govern Gaza
00:14:06
moving forward? If you're a Palestinian,
00:14:09
whether you're in Hamas or not, you want
00:14:11
the Palestinians to be in a position
00:14:14
where they determine their own future.
00:14:16
Right? If you're a Palestinian, you want
00:14:18
to run your own politics. And if you
00:14:21
look at the arrangement that President
00:14:23
Trump has set up, the Palestinians are
00:14:25
not running their own politics. And by
00:14:28
the way, he's decided that at some point
00:14:30
down the road, the Palestinian Authority
00:14:34
after it has been re-educated can take
00:14:37
over in Gaza. And you sort of say to
00:14:40
yourself, from a Palestinian point of
00:14:42
view, what is this telling you?
00:14:43
President Trump is going to decide who
00:14:46
runs Gaza. This is unacceptable to us as
00:14:49
Palestinians. And this is the basic
00:14:52
problem that you face. Nobody in the
00:14:55
West and certainly the Israelis are
00:14:57
willing to allow the Palestinians to
00:14:59
determine their own fate or to have a
00:15:02
state of their own at the end of this
00:15:04
political process. And as long as you
00:15:06
don't do that, this conflict is going to
00:15:09
go on and on, especially when you
00:15:11
consider who's in the driver's seat in
00:15:13
Tel Aviv.
00:15:14
>> But but isn't the reality on the ground
00:15:16
there that Netanyahu operated a divide
00:15:18
in rule quite deliberately between Hamas
00:15:21
and the Palestinian Authority from 2006.
00:15:25
uh he seemed either oblivious or oddly
00:15:28
unconcerned by the fact that the
00:15:30
billions of dollars dollars he helped
00:15:32
funnel to Hamas was being squandered on
00:15:35
this elaborate tunnel system. Um as he
00:15:38
was totally oblivious it seemed to any
00:15:41
warnings of what may happen on October
00:15:43
the 7th which seems extraordinary to me
00:15:45
given the powers that the Mossad has.
00:15:48
But that actually the only logical way
00:15:51
surely going forward is to no longer
00:15:53
have a separate Palestinian government
00:15:57
in the West Bank and Gaza, but to have a
00:16:00
united government for both areas because
00:16:04
they've shown that where you have two
00:16:06
actually it can lead to massive
00:16:08
instability which is what I think
00:16:10
Netanyahu wanted but he didn't realize
00:16:13
just how how bad it would get. Is there
00:16:16
not a logic in having the same governing
00:16:18
body in both the West Bank and Gaza?
00:16:23
>> Yes, there is. And if you're in favor of
00:16:26
a two-state solution, as you are, then
00:16:29
you want the Palestinian authority to be
00:16:32
in charge, not only in the West Bank,
00:16:34
where they're now in charge, but in Gaza
00:16:37
as well. But you want to understand that
00:16:41
Benjamin Netanyahu
00:16:43
wanted Hamas in charge in Gaza because
00:16:46
they don't want a two-state solution. I
00:16:49
agree.
00:16:50
>> And Benjamin not
00:16:51
>> and he's made it clear to President
00:16:53
Trump now that he does not want the
00:16:56
Palestinian Authority to take over in
00:16:58
Gaza because his great fear is that that
00:17:01
will be mean movement toward a two-state
00:17:04
solution which he doesn't want. This is
00:17:06
the great problem that we face. It's the
00:17:09
Israelis more than anything who were
00:17:12
opposed to a two-state solution.
00:17:14
>> And you don't think a change of
00:17:16
leadership in Israel could have any
00:17:18
impact on that?
00:17:21
>> Well, it's widely believed in the West,
00:17:24
as you know, that the problem here is
00:17:26
Benjamin Netanyahu. And if only we can
00:17:29
get rid of Benjamin Netanyahu, then
00:17:31
enlightened Israelis will come to power
00:17:33
and will live happily ever after. This
00:17:36
is not true. Benjamin Netanyahu gets
00:17:38
elected time after time because his
00:17:41
views reflect the views of most
00:17:44
Israelis. And I believe that no matter
00:17:47
who is driving the train in Israel, he
00:17:51
or she will be committed to cleansing uh
00:17:54
both the West Bank and Gaza. They want a
00:17:57
greater Israel that has almost all Jews
00:18:01
and no Palestinians.
00:18:04
Let's turn briefly to Ukraine because
00:18:06
Trump has said he wants to now go and
00:18:08
get that sorted. Albeit you don't think
00:18:11
he's sorted the Middle East, but let's
00:18:12
let's assume for a moment he thinks he
00:18:14
has or at least got it on the right
00:18:16
track by getting a ceasefire and the
00:18:18
hostages released. Where are we with
00:18:21
Ukraine here? I mean, Trump's been
00:18:22
talking about he has several
00:18:24
conversations with President Zalinski in
00:18:26
which they apparently discussed the use
00:18:28
of tomahawk missiles that America may
00:18:30
give the Ukrainians to fire into Russia.
00:18:33
How significant is that in terms of an
00:18:35
escalation of American involvement? And
00:18:38
where are we with the war, do you think?
00:18:42
>> Well, I think in terms of the war, it's
00:18:44
quite clear that the Russians are
00:18:46
winning on the battlefield. Uh the head
00:18:50
of the Ukrainian army admits that his
00:18:52
soldiers are outnumbered 3 to one
00:18:56
overall on the front lines and six to
00:18:59
one in some critically important places.
00:19:02
And when you look at the balance of
00:19:03
firepower, it greatly favors the
00:19:06
Russians. So the Russians are slowly but
00:19:09
steadily winning and the Ukrainians are
00:19:12
losing. And the question is what can the
00:19:14
west do about this? Uh and the answer is
00:19:17
not much. There was talk for a while as
00:19:20
you remember about secondary sanctions.
00:19:22
This is where we put sanctions on India
00:19:24
and China as a way of punishing Russia.
00:19:27
We've given up on that. So there's no
00:19:29
economical.
00:19:30
>> Just on that point though, it's
00:19:31
interesting. I mean, he's put 50% tariff
00:19:34
on India and he's cited the fact that
00:19:37
they they buy too much oil and energy
00:19:39
from Russia as the reason. Is that not
00:19:42
an indication that Trump wants to try
00:19:44
and destabilize Russia economically and
00:19:47
that the best way to do that is to bring
00:19:49
big purchases of his energy like India
00:19:52
back into line by using very high
00:19:55
aggressive tariffs against them until
00:19:56
they until they stop buying Russian
00:19:58
energy. Is that not what he's up to and
00:20:00
is that not potentially quite an
00:20:02
interesting strategy?
00:20:04
I think one can argue just as you do
00:20:07
that putting 50% tariffs on India was
00:20:10
designed to get India to break off its
00:20:13
importing of oil from Russia. But what
00:20:16
happened? It didn't work. In fact, it
00:20:18
backfired. It pushed the Indians and the
00:20:21
Russians closer. It pushed the Indians,
00:20:23
the Russians, and the Chinese closer. It
00:20:26
just simply didn't work. We have no
00:20:28
economic lever. And now we're flailing
00:20:31
around talking about the possibility of
00:20:33
giving Tomahawk missiles uh to the
00:20:36
Ukrainians. I don't believe that we have
00:20:39
the Tomahawk missiles to give to the
00:20:41
Ukrainians. I don't believe Trump would
00:20:43
give them to the Ukrainians. But even if
00:20:46
he does, it's not going to matter very
00:20:48
much at all. Remember, we gave him a
00:20:50
tack and that was supposed to be a
00:20:52
war-winning weapon. We gave them
00:20:55
highars. We gave them F-16s. Those were
00:20:58
all supposed to be the magic bullets.
00:21:01
None of them panned out. The idea that
00:21:03
giving the Ukrainians tomahawks is going
00:21:06
to turn this one around, shift the tide
00:21:08
against the Russians, uh, and in
00:21:11
Ukraine's favor is delusional. The fact
00:21:14
is Ukraine is going to lose the war. The
00:21:18
West is going to lose the war. That's a
00:21:20
bitter pill to swallow, but that is
00:21:23
reality. And if you were President
00:21:26
Trump, what could you do that would have
00:21:29
a an effect on Putin to deter him from
00:21:33
continuing to prosecute the war or to
00:21:35
expand it?
00:21:38
>> Well, I think there's nothing that
00:21:39
President Trump can do. The Russians
00:21:42
have made it unequivocally clear since
00:21:44
the start of this war what their goals
00:21:46
are. They have three principal goals.
00:21:50
Ukraine has to be neutral. It can't be a
00:21:52
NATO. It can't have meaningful security
00:21:55
guarantees. Number one. Number two,
00:21:57
Ukraine and the West have to accept the
00:21:59
four Oblasts that Russia has next now
00:22:03
belong to Russia plus the Crimea. And
00:22:06
then number three, Ukraine has to be
00:22:09
disarmed to the point where it doesn't
00:22:11
have significant offensive capability
00:22:14
against Russia. Those are conditions
00:22:17
that the Russians have set out and are
00:22:19
determined to stick to. And there's no
00:22:22
way Trump can do anything to move them
00:22:25
away from those conditions. And the
00:22:27
Russians are willing to fight until they
00:22:30
create a situation where they get those
00:22:32
conditions. And that's where we are
00:22:34
today. So, President Trump, I think,
00:22:38
would like to work out a deal. He'd like
00:22:40
to take into account what Russia's
00:22:42
demands are and work out a deal. But
00:22:45
even if he did work out a deal, he could
00:22:47
not get the Europeans and the Ukrainians
00:22:50
to agree to that deal. They simply
00:22:53
wouldn't accept it. So what Trump is
00:22:55
actually doing, peers, if you watch
00:22:57
carefully, is he's distancing himself
00:23:00
from this conflict. He's turning over
00:23:03
the responsibility for running the
00:23:05
conflict to the Europeans. He's making
00:23:09
them buy weapons from the United States
00:23:12
to give to Ukraine. The United States is
00:23:14
not directly giving weapons to the
00:23:17
Ukrainians anymore. And furthermore,
00:23:19
Trump is doing just enough so that when
00:23:23
Ukraine goes under, he cannot be blamed.
00:23:26
For example, on the sanctions, think
00:23:28
about the secondary sanctions we were
00:23:30
talking about a minute ago. Trump said
00:23:34
very cleverly that he would agree to the
00:23:37
secondary sanctions if the Europeans
00:23:40
also agreed to the secondary sanctions.
00:23:43
The Europeans, of course, are in no
00:23:45
position to accept the secondary
00:23:47
sanctions. So, President Trump says,
00:23:50
"I'm in favor of secondary sanctions,
00:23:52
but the United States is not going to
00:23:54
bear the sole burden of putting those
00:23:56
sanctions on Russia. And since the
00:23:58
Europeans won't go along, we won't go
00:24:00
along. So Trump can't be blamed. He's
00:24:03
blaming the Europeans. So Trump is
00:24:06
slowly but steadily weaning himself,
00:24:09
weaning the United States from the
00:24:11
Ukraine conflict because he understands
00:24:14
it's a lost cause and he wants to turn
00:24:16
it over to the Europeans and the
00:24:19
Ukrainians to figure out how to put an
00:24:21
end to it. If if Putin wins in Ukraine
00:24:26
though, what is to stop him doing this
00:24:28
elsewhere?
00:24:30
the fact that he had so much difficulty
00:24:34
and paid such an awful price just
00:24:37
conquering the eastern 15th of Ukraine
00:24:41
means that he does not have the
00:24:43
capability to conquer all of Ukraine
00:24:46
much less invade countries in Eastern
00:24:49
Europe. When you look at the raw
00:24:51
capability of the Russian army, there is
00:24:54
no way it can conquer all of Ukraine
00:24:57
plus territory in Eastern Europe.
00:25:00
Furthermore, when you look at what Putin
00:25:02
has said over time, he has never once
00:25:05
said that he was interested in
00:25:07
conquering all of Ukraine and he never
00:25:10
has once said that he was con interested
00:25:13
in conquering any territory in Eastern
00:25:16
Europe. this idea that he is you know uh
00:25:19
interested in recreating the Soviet
00:25:22
Union and then the Soviet Empire and
00:25:24
Eastern Europe is a figment of
00:25:27
Westerners imaginations.
00:25:30
Final question, Professor Misha, because
00:25:32
you probably know the answer to this,
00:25:33
but that there is a belief, I think
00:25:35
Steven Pinker has talked about this,
00:25:37
that despite all the attention we have
00:25:39
with the Israel Hamas war and Russia
00:25:42
Ukraine, that this is actually in terms
00:25:45
of warfare, the least wararmongering
00:25:49
period in recorded history. That
00:25:51
actually there are fewer wars raging now
00:25:54
than there have ever been. Is that your
00:25:56
sense?
00:26:00
Uh I think that what's important to
00:26:02
understand uh peers is that the war in
00:26:06
Ukraine is uh a war that bears marked
00:26:11
resemblance to World War I. And
00:26:13
furthermore, one can make a case that
00:26:15
the United States is almost at war or at
00:26:19
war with Russia.
00:26:21
>> And this is what makes this period so
00:26:24
special and so dangerous. We have one
00:26:27
particular war that stands out above all
00:26:30
the other wars that we have seen
00:26:33
actually since World War II. You and I
00:26:36
are old enough to remember the Cold War.
00:26:38
We had nothing like the Ukraine war
00:26:41
during the Cold War. It was unthinkable
00:26:44
that the United States would support a
00:26:47
country like Ukraine that invaded mother
00:26:51
Russia during the Cold War or supported
00:26:54
a country like Ukraine that struck at
00:26:57
the Russian strategic nuclear forces.
00:27:00
This is a really remarkable development
00:27:03
in terms of where we are today. And if
00:27:05
you look at the battlefield, what you
00:27:07
see in eastern Ukraine does bear marked
00:27:10
resemblance to what you saw on the
00:27:11
Western Front in World War I. So I think
00:27:14
it's that war that makes people think
00:27:17
that this period is so different. And in
00:27:19
that sense, it is very different. But in
00:27:22
terms of whether or not they're more or
00:27:24
less wars now than over past decades, I
00:27:27
think nothing much has changed there.
00:27:29
But most of those wars were relatively
00:27:32
small wars, nothing like the Ukraine
00:27:34
war.
00:27:35
>> Professor M. Shimmer, it's always a
00:27:37
pleasure to have you on our sensor.
00:27:39
Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
00:27:42
>> Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly
00:27:43
independent. The only boss around here
00:27:45
is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for
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Description:

Amid the positivity and relief about the prospect of peace in Gaza, not everybody has been thrilled by the sight of the US president honouring Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Knesset. The fact remains that more people now than ever, including among Trump’s base, are deeply uncomfortable about Israel’s influence on US politics and deeply skeptical about the prospects of a lasting peace with Netanyahu still in power. International relations scholar Professor John Mearsheimer joins Piers Morgan to give his analysis. Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent and supported by: Ground News: Ground News: Go to https://ground.news/landingV8/piersmorgan for 40% off the Vantage subscription and find the truth mainstream media doesn't want you to see. Oxford Natural: To watch their full stories, scan the QR code on your screen or visit https://oxfordnatural.com/piers/ to get 70% off your first order when you use code PIERS. Birch Gold: Visit https://freekit.birchgold.com/piers-morgan-gold-ira/?msid=56560&subid=web to get your free info kit on gold. 00:00 Introduction and monologue 01:21 John Mearsheimer's assessment of the Gaza ceasefire 05:50 Piers on skepticism over Palestinians being allowed to return to their homeland 06:18 Who is going to run Gaza? 09:30 Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords 11:27 Israel’s attack on Doha 16:07 A two-state solution or the same governing body in Gaza and the West bank? 19:40 Trump and destabilizing Russia 25:40 Are there fewer wars raging now than before? Subscribe to stay up-to-date on all Uncensored content. Follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on: X: https://x.com/PiersUncensored Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@piersmorganuncensored Follow Piers Morgan on: X: https://x.com/piersmorgan Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser

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