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Russian
00:00:01
is a holiday that the Russian authorities have turned from a quiet
family celebration, respected throughout the post-Soviet space,00:00:11
first into a colorful carnival, with the “we can repeat it» slogan,
and now it’s a day that people on both sides of the border
are waiting with a shudder, 00:00:19
lining up hypotheses from mobilization to nuclear strike.00:00:25
It's time to answer the question:
when will all this end?00:00:29
On the one hand, we are dealing with an elderly autocracy
that started a large-scale war. We, purely intuitively,
understand that this story is finite.00:00:37
On the other hand, Putin is in his 23rd year of ruling and
it is already very difficult to imagine Russia without him.00:00:43
There is nothing easier than looking
at the fall of destructive regimes in hindsight – 00:00:48
everything adds up in a logical
sequence and is always amazing: 00:00:52
well, how could people not understand
where everything is going?00:00:57
Before we start – a vacancy. 00:01:00
The news channel requires a person who will briefly retell foreign
materials in an interesting and understandable language. 00:01:06
Who wants to try – retell the article from the New York Times
at the link in the description and send it to the form there.
The maximum length is 280 words.00:01:20
Today we understand that since the late 1970s and early 1980s,
the process of the collapse of the Soviet state
has already entered its final stage.00:01:30
It is enough just to turn on the
recording of the funeral of Leonid Brezhnev, 00:01:35
to look at all this Politburo on the podium of the mausoleum,
which can barely stand on its feet,00:01:40
as these poor old people, still alive only
by the heroism of the Kremlin doctors,00:01:45
barely able to read the text from a piece of paper –
everything becomes immediately clear.00:01:50
We don’t even need to know that the planned economy by this
time had ceased to cope with the supply of citizens with even
the most basic goods for physical survival,00:01:59
that there was a doomed war in Afghanistan,
that talk about how rotten everything was
no longer only in the kitchens of ordinary workers ,00:02:08
but also at the level of ministers, heads of republics
and candidates for membership in the Politburo, 00:02:14
that fermentation has already begun on the outskirts of the empire,
which will very soon turn into paramilitary clashes.00:02:20
It is not necessary to know all this, each scene in the carriage race
that has begun is a self-sufficient illustration of a dying country,
any detail used to screams that the regime is doomed.00:02:32
But people at that time did not at all think that a regime
that had existed for more than 60 years was only
a matter of years away from death. 00:02:41
They were all born and raised under this regime,
and apart from it, most of them saw nothing.00:02:46
In addition, the first half of the 1980s, especially the period
immediately after Brezhnev's death, when Yuri Andropov 00:02:53
came to power, was the most silent, most reactionary,
most repressive time in all of late Soviet history.00:02:59
The former head of the KGB sincerely believed that slovenliness,
lack of control and discipline were to blame for all the problems
of the Soviet system, in the economic crisis and total deficit.00:03:13
That you need to follow orders better
and ask from people more strictly.00:03:16
Stop parasitism and drunkenness, deal with total theft:
with shop managers who take out factories by trucks, 00:03:24
with turners who make private orders
on a service machine, 00:03:28
with trade workers who have long built
a parallel economy with a vertical of bribes, 00:03:35
consisting of underweight, underfilling, selling from under
the floor and reverse, with rampant speculation and smuggling.00:03:44
Stop all this, start a couple of big criminal cases
with execution sentences, 00:03:49
tighten the screws, tighten censorship,
clean up ideological work, and the car will drive better than new.00:03:55
Now we know that Andropov will die after only 15 months from
his accession, and after another 13 Mikhail Gorbachev
will come and perestroika will begin. 00:04:05
That the country, which lived for the 7th decade,
has less life left than the queue for a kitchen set. 00:04:13
Those who lived in the early 80s remember this time
of change from decrepit Brezhnev totalitarianism 00:04:18
to quite a Stalinist atmosphere
brought by the former head of the KGB, 00:04:24
and it seems to them that this will last forever.00:04:28
People lived in stagnation for almost 20 years.00:04:30
Their life was getting worse and poorer every year,
and now this stagnation has been supplemented
by attempts to impose “discipline” by police methods, 00:04:38
to block even those few pockets
of freedom that still existed.00:04:43
What could make them think that the political system that
permeated everything was only months away from its end?00:04:46
What could make them think that the political system that
permeated everything was only months away from its end?00:04:49
This system was the only teacher, the only employee –
every worker was state hired.00:04:56
The feeling that this is here forever
was completely general, it concerned not only
the citizens inside, it concerned all external observers.00:05:05
If we read the Western press, then even
the most daring authors in forecasts, 00:05:09
the sharpest politicians in those years did not say
that the Soviet Union was doomed,00:05:13
and that very soon it would become just a memory.00:05:16
Absolutely everything that seems eerily obvious to us,
living 30 years after the end of the system, seemed
completely unbelievable then. 00:05:24
How can something that
has always existed just disappear?00:05:28
This is perhaps one of the most
harmful properties of stagnation and irremovability.00:05:32
Everything that lasts for decades, in a lifetime
of which whole generations have time to grow up 00:05:38
(I remind you that people born at the end of Putin’s
first term are dying in Ukraine now) – 00:05:43
and so all this begins to seem normal, familiar, stable,
internally logical, inevitable, and most importantly, eternal.00:05:53
How can you imagine Russia without Putin,
if you have lived with him all your life, 00:05:58
and even at a somewhat conscious age you have not seen
young Putin brought to the Kremlin literally by the hand,00:06:03
who looks more frightened than imperious?00:06:06
I'm not even talking about whether
you caught Yeltsin and USSR.00:06:09
But those who will look at our time from the future –
even if it will be ourselves – 00:06:14
will see a completely different picture, other cause-and-effect
relationships, a completely different timing.00:06:19
They will see a country that developed
very well and rapidly in the 2000s, 00:06:23
the first 10 years of Putin's rule, developed
on successful reforms, at high commodity prices.00:06:30
They will see the 2010s, when the regime,
feeling threatened by mass protests, rapidly pupated,
became more and more closed and repressive,00:06:39
as its economy began to balance
between stagnation and recession from growth.00:06:44
And they will say that, probably, in such a regime,
when it is neither fish nor meat, one can live for decades. 00:06:50
Citizens are demotivated, atomized,
they do not trust either the state or each other,00:06:55
the economy is not growing, but the budget is always in surplus,
salaries are small, but they are paid on time.00:07:02
The state has isolated itself, it does not require anything
from citizens, except to sit quietly on the couch.00:07:07
Until some successful blood clot separates
the state and its leader, it will quietly rot: 00:07:13
each next year is almost indistinguishable from the previous one,
but look at a decade – everyone has become a quarter poorer.00:07:21
But, they will say that on February 24, in an attempt to maintain
precious stability, an anvil was thrown on this stability.00:07:29
They tried to organize a telegenic special operation,
but got a real war in the center of Europe, 00:07:35
from which there is no way out.00:07:37
And this was the turning point from
which the regime did not manage to get out.00:07:41
Student of the future can literally
copy this right now and add to the essay.00:07:47
But how do we differ from those
who will describe us in the future?00:07:52
We differ in that for us the units
of measurement are a day or a week: 00:07:56
the war going on for the third month
seems to us an eternity,00:07:59
and those who will describe the death of a political
regime in the future can easily operate on scales like 00:08:05
“the first half of the 20s” and every time check Wikipedia:00:08:08
did they mix up the 20th with the 22nd
and the 19th with the 24th.00:08:13
Students of the future pay attention!00:08:15
Making predictions from
a point of uncertainty is insane. 00:08:20
Predicting the death of regimes is more quackery than
predicting oil prices, especially in the case of authoritarian regimes,00:08:25
where everything is always quiet, until
at one moment everything just disappears.00:08:30
On the other hand, you need to remember: a resident in 1983
had many more reasons to think that it was forever.00:08:40
The man from 1983 lived in a country where,
at the very least, there was some kind of collective rule, 00:08:46
where the general secretary did not hang in the air,
being the only real institution of power, 00:08:50
where he relied on the Politburo,
assembled from balanced nomenklatura bosses, 00:08:56
and not faceless appointees, arbitrarily moved within the hierarchy,
like the current “security council”.00:09:03
Despite the fact that the Brezhnev era was clearly prolonged
(although what are these 18 years in comparison with our time), 00:09:08
but the Soviet system was not equal to Brezhnev,
it would never have occurred to anyone to say:
no Brezhnev – no USSR. 00:09:14
Everyone understood that if Brezhnev
had died – Andropov would take his place,00:09:18
Andropov would die – he would be replaced
by someone else from the short list of Politburo members.00:09:23
After Stalin's death, Soviet power was never personalistic. 00:09:27
The system, albeit crooked and askew,
albeit not on procedures, but on a local coup d'état, 00:09:32
albeit with a fight of bulldogs under the carpet and palace
intrigues, has learned to change its leaders without falling apart.00:09:39
Even realizing that the new general secretary was unlikely
to last until the coming spring, there was no reason
to think that the system would collapse.00:09:45
He didn’t create this system, it doesn’t work for him,
he’s just the same cog as everyone else, just very high.00:09:53
If you watched the Chernobyl series by HBO,
then its scriptwriters, who never lived in the USSR and even Russia,00:10:00
were able to catch this logic very accurately:00:10:02
from a simple worker to a general secretary, from a scientist
to a chekist, everyone works for the system,00:10:07
and it doesn’t work on anybody in return, 00:10:10
no one is free in it, no one wins, it will calmly
sacrifice anyone and will exist forever.00:10:16
The Russian system of power
is not even close to that. 00:10:19
This is the most banal,
most primitive personalist autocracy. 00:10:24
Which has nothing: no ideology,
no Areopagus of balanced rulers, 00:10:28
and any talk about successors, about some
kind of change of leader, gives rise to such horror 00:10:34
in it that it is necessary to urgently change the constitution
in order to inspire the elite with the idea that this
70-year-old man will rule another 30 years.00:10:44
After Putin, there is no not only “Putin No. 2”, but even no real
successor in terms of his weight, and even Dmitry Medvedev,
who obediently accepted the post – passed the post, 00:10:53
was not publicly noticed in life in ambition, even he had to be
pushed to a non-existent position so that no one, God forbid,
“would scour his eyes” in search of the next president. 00:11:03
Because this system, unlike the Soviet one, was built by Putin
and does not work without Putin, any talk about changing him
is a poor man's conversation.00:11:11
For this reason, it cannot even
really explain why it does what it does.00:11:16
The confrontation between the USSR and the USA,
the Warsaw Pact and NATO is a clash of two systems,00:11:21
when it is very important whether that
African country will be socialist or capitalist.00:11:26
This has its own internal logic.00:11:29
When Russia attacks Ukraine, the reasons have to be invented
on the fly and changed twice a day.00:11:35
Because it is impossible to tell the truth:
this is the whim of our leader, who lives in an illusory world,00:11:42
we allowed the concentration of power in his hands
and now everyone is too dependent to object or get rid of him.00:11:49
Unlike the Soviet one, which really seemed to last forever,
this system will exist only as long as Putin can control it.00:11:58
It has no future beyond these limits, and everyone
understands this so much that they speak quite openly.00:12:04
That is why our ancestor from 1983 is similar to us,
he also lived in darkness and did not see the future,00:12:12
just living one bad day in line for butter,
and then another bad day in line for buckwheat, 00:12:19
but he had much more reasons
to be discouraged than us today.00:12:22
After all, he dealt with the system,
and we deal with the person.00:12:25
I don't think anyone has a sense of the end right now.
On the contrary, there is a feeling of a suspended situation.00:12:31
And it's pretty true.
After all, the end of this story will inevitably come.00:12:36
A regime fixated on one person
could not even survive not his physical death,00:12:41
but the moment when he loses
the ability to control the situation.00:12:46
But it could take a very long time.00:12:49
Now Vladimir Putin is forced to control
not the system that he built, not corrupt authoritarianism, 00:12:56
but the country that started a big war,
is losing this war and is facing a real need for mobilization, i.e., 00:13:03
for the first time must draw the mass
of citizens into responsibility for their solutions.00:13:08
Without trying to predict the dates,
I must say that in our lifetime we will see the end of this.00:13:13
What Putin has done is anything
but extension of his power.00:13:18
See you tomorrow!Description:
Tomorrow, May 9, is a day that people on both sides of the border are looking forward to with a shudder. It's time to answer the question: when will all this end? Today we will talk about the problems of forecasting, we will tell you why in the early 80s people did not expect the collapse of the USSR, and we will try to understand how we differ from them. Откликнуться на вакансию редактора текстов: https://forms.gle/M9jPVZoNEpHbqBNr7 _________________________ USDT (TRC20) TVLqmTPafduGyhBNpVhJCCJtvbqiA3ANxT USDT (ERC20) 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 BTC 3C4Xp9NMSsybwG1p9YENDbbuott4voPsFH ETH 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/maximkatz Boosty: https://boosty.to/max_katz https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUGfDbfRIx51kJGGHIFo8Rw/join _________________________ #Russia #future #Putin 00:00 INTRODUCTION 01:20 FORECASTING PROBLEMS 08:40 HOW ARE WE DIFFERENT? 10:43 FINDINGS
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