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Russian
00:00:16
Because, among other things, this war
is a test of Ukrainian statehood.00:00:22
Has Ukraine become a truly independent
and sovereign state in 30 years, has it been able00:00:27
to build sustainable institutions that
can work even in extreme conditions?00:00:32
Or is Vladimir Putin right and Ukraine is just
a fragment of an empire, accidentally called a state?00:00:41
This is what the whole
plan was based on.00:00:44
No one really thought about fighting.00:00:46
They thought that the very sight of tank columns
would be enough for the Ukrainian administrative00:00:51
apparatus to collapse, politicians to flee,
and officials to rush to replace the flag.00:00:57
Six months later, we know for sure
that Ukraine passed this test brilliantly.00:01:02
All components of the Ukrainian state passed the test,
put in a situation where you have to make00:01:08
100 times more decisions in
a hundred times worse conditions.00:01:12
It is necessary to fight the war, take care of
the victims and refugees, engage in daily diplomacy00:01:18
in search of money and weapons simultaneously –
and in the meantime be a normal state:00:01:21
pay pensions and benefits, maintain infrastructure,
register acts of civil status, fight crime, and so on.00:01:30
There was no macroeconomic catastrophe in Ukraine: the
hryvnia devalued slightly, inflation jumped, but not critically.00:01:39
Ambulances, police and
firefighters come to the calls.00:01:42
The banking sector is working.00:01:44
The education system is working, the courts
are working, services are repairing pipes,00:01:49
there is light and heat in the houses.00:01:52
Yes, Vitali Klitschko warns the people of Kiev that the
temperature in the houses in winter will be “below the norm”,00:01:57
but we are talking about three degrees below the norm,
and not about heating the apartments00:02:04
with potbelly stoves,
which could be expected.00:02:08
You will laugh, but there is urban news from Kyiv: streets
are being reconstructed and bike paths are being built.00:02:15
In the capital of a country that is waging
a high-intensity war on its territory.00:02:21
If we recall the history of world
wars, we say: it is impossible.00:02:28
A country under martial law is always cutting off civilian
infrastructure to a vital minimum, introducing cards, 00:02:37
strict consumption limits, and completely
reorienting all production strictly to war.00:02:44
Far from everywhere there was such horror
as in besieged Leningrad or in Moscow, 00:02:50
which Hitler sieged, but when the state continues to function almost as usual - this has never happened.00:03:01
Even the fuel crisis, which hit the citizens very hard
in the first months of the war, was quickly resolved.00:03:08
All types of fuel is now available.00:03:11
A state at risk of losing up to half of its GDP by the end of
the year, deprived of the lion's share of tax revenues,00:03:18
and having lost a number of important industrial and
agricultural centers as a result of the war and occupation.00:03:24
The state, whose export is largely limited by blocked ports,
continues to work and perform its daily functions. 00:03:34
Of course, Russian propagandists and some odious officials
continue to say that Ukraine has ceased to exist as a state,00:03:41
and the Russian army is opposed
only by foreign volunteers.00:03:45
However, it is too obvious that their
words do not correspond to any reality.00:03:52
But how did the Russian leadership have any
illusions that Ukraine would quickly crumble?00:03:57
The fact is that the collapse of the Soviet Union for
its main participants – Russia, Ukraine and Belarus –00:04:03
passed as casually as possible.00:04:06
Nothing has changed so much for people
in the moment that the concept of “sovereignty”00:04:11
was not taken seriously
by many for a long time.00:04:13
It seemed to them that the border control that
arose between the countries and passports00:04:17
of different colors was a convention. 00:04:20
They say that earlier the headquarters
was in Moscow, and now it will be in Kyiv.00:04:25
The specific location of the chief had little effect
on life on the conditional collective farm named00:04:31
after Budyonny in the Dnepropetrovsk region.00:04:34
And now, thirty-one years later, the Russian leadership
decided that another change of flags in Ukraine00:04:41
would take place just as
routinely and without resistance.00:04:44
Well, separate groups of Ukrainian patriots with guns
and Molotov cocktails will give an unorganized rebuff,00:04:51
the middle class will be a little indignant,
a couple of thousand people will go to the rally00:04:55
under the batons of the National Guard.00:04:56
The rest will just continue
to live as if nothing happened.00:05:01
However, during the time when Ukraine
and Russia lived, albeit close, but separate,00:05:06
a national-state community was finally formed in Ukraine,
which is ready to defend its sovereignty.00:05:13
Now many people call the current invasion a war for the
independence of Ukraine, but this is not entirely true.00:05:18
In the war for independence,
independence is gained.00:05:22
And this war is a statement of independence.00:05:25
This war demonstrates that Ukraine has long
become a separate independent state,00:05:30
with which it is pointless
to wage a colonial war.00:05:33
After all, a whole six months of war and constant
shelling have passed, and the state has not crumbled,00:05:38
has not fallen under the
onslaught of a superior enemy.00:05:42
It continues to work successfully in normal mode,
although at the same time it is at war.00:05:49
This Independence Day of Ukraine will be
held more modestly than in previous years, 00:05:53
with a curfew and bans on mass events,
without a parade and a day off.00:05:58
But it will be the most important
Independence Day in Ukrainian history.00:06:02
It is the events of this war that Ukrainians
will remember every next August 24th00:06:08
and tell new generations how in 2022 their ancestors did not
give Kyiv and Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv to the invaders.00:06:19
How they confirmed that the existence
of Ukraine is not a historical accident,00:06:23
but a value for which
millions are ready to fight.00:06:27
As for this date for Russia, it was
not without symbolism either.00:06:34
After six months of a protracted meat grinder,
the country's leadership, together with the jingoistic patriots,00:06:38
got what they wanted in the first days of the war –
Russian tanks right on Khreshchatyk. 00:06:43
True, they do not participate in the parade,
but stand in the form of exhibits of the exhibition00:06:49
of the destroyed equipment of the occupiers.00:06:51
And no flowers from the «liberated locals» -
passers-by look at the rusty iron with squeamish curiosity. 00:07:00
And this complete discrepancy between the expectations of
those who started the war and reality is in everything.00:07:07
Instead of leadership in the new «world order» -
the role of an international pariah. 00:07:12
Instead of a lightning-fast blitzkrieg –
a protracted bloody massacre,00:07:18
here in order to advance a kilometer, you have to sacrifice
thousands of lives, which has been going on for half a year.00:07:29
Regarding today's date, there are concerns that the
Russian army may carry out a massive strike.00:07:35
Is August 24 dangerous?00:07:36
Yes, it is dangerous, for many reasons.00:07:39
First, the CIA warns about
the intensification of hostilities.00:07:43
This war taught us to trust the CIA.00:07:46
So far, everything that American intelligence has
warned about has happened with the minimal deviations.00:07:53
Secondly, Putin is a hybrid of a Soviet
official with an everyday mystic.00:07:58
Soviet logic dictates to be in time “by the date”: to hand
over the object by May 1, to report before November 7.00:08:05
Everyday mysticism is very inclined towards
any kind of folklore numerology.00:08:11
Six months of war, Ukraine's Independence Day, 450
years of St. Bartholomew's Night, on August 24,00:08:17
1949, the NATO Treaty came into force.00:08:21
And on August 24, 1814, Washington was
burning along with the White House.00:08:26
A mind inclined towards mystical thinking
can attach itself to many things here.00:08:32
Third, “half a year of war” sounds ominous.00:08:36
Even people who sincerely believe in propaganda
see that there is no end to this adventure.00:08:45
We started cheerfully, for a new world order, and we
finish sluggishly - we learn the names of rural settlements00:08:52
in the Donetsk region, we argue how to say it correctly:
Peskí or Péski - which two days later someone00:08:58
takes for the third time again - either the Wagner PMC,
or the Ministry of Defense, now Kadyrov, 00:09:03
then the brave troops of the DPR,
which is invariably reported on TV.00:09:11
They drew red lines on the map.00:09:13
A lot of not very meaningful concepts have
been introduced into circulation, such as00:09:17
“attacks on decision-making centers,”
but nothing is happening at the front.00:09:21
After all, there is a reason propaganda
lost quarter of its audience.00:09:24
The viewer expects some plot twists, but these
series has have been on for six months now00:09:28
and there is nothing happening. 00:09:30
In such difficult conditions, the Russian command
may have a strong desire to make a breakthrough,00:09:36
to strike some kind of blow - just so that
the falling asleep audience revives a little,00:09:42
so that those who have stopped watching
state news return to television screens.00:09:49
On the other hand, it's not very clear
what Putin could do that we haven't seen yet. 00:09:54
Militarily senseless, but bloody shelling
of the largest cities in Ukraine?00:09:58
So they go all 6 months without a break.00:10:01
Some new breakthrough to
Kyiv, Nikolaev, Kharkiv?00:10:04
No one even fantasizes about this, because
it is unrealistic to carry out operations00:10:08
of this magnitude without mobilization, by an army
that fought for six months and is notably battered.00:10:15
The invasion of February 24 was prepared for
at least 4 months, since October, 200 thousand00:10:22
of the most combat-ready Russian
forces were gathered for it.00:10:25
On February 24, ammunition depots did not burn,
the Ukrainian land was not sown with thousands00:10:30
of pieces of broken Russian equipment,
a hundred planes and helicopters did not turn to dust,00:10:38
the cruiser Moskva was still afloat, 7 divisions of manpower
did not replenish the lists of the dead and wounded,00:10:45
the rest were not exhausted by battles.00:10:48
The army in that state
showed us what we saw.00:10:53
It’s not very clear, to be honest, why after six
months we should expect something else from it.00:11:01
Most likely, there will be more atrocities.00:11:05
But it is not clear where to
expect a radical change from.00:11:11
Probably the main question that may be
asked after half a year of war is mobilization.00:11:16
Is it possible to bring the army up to
wartime parameters, to put citizens under arms?00:11:22
I will leave purely military
arguments to military analysts.00:11:25
I will answer as a politician with some experience: with
every day of the war, mobilization is less and less real.00:11:33
When states go through revolutions or overturning
elections, when political power changes dramatically,00:11:39
experienced analysts always say: the new
government has a window of reform.00:11:44
Bearing in mind that it will close soon.00:11:49
The new managers have from several months to a couple
of years to carry out their radical transformations,00:11:54
because then the citizens will get tired, the old bureaucracy
will come to their senses – and you can no longer try,00:12:00
everything will return to normal.00:12:03
There are actions in politics that can only be done
today, only this week, or only this year.00:12:11
Mobilization is one such action.00:12:13
Mobilization is carried out on the rise, when
the militaristic frenzy is at its maximum,00:12:17
when the desire to crush and destroy the enemy
is seething, and most importantly,00:12:22
when there are still no corpses
in a significant amount.00:12:24
When the war still looks like some kind of movie, some kind
of game, a movement in which you want to participate.00:12:31
To be honest, from the very beginning it was
doubtful that some kind of “rally around the flag”00:12:36
had happened in Russia, some kind
of national unity in the need to take Kyiv.00:12:40
Obviously, not from a good life, punitive articles
of the Criminal Code were introduced00:12:45
in a week and all the remnants
of independent media were closed.00:12:47
We realized that the
citizens would not like it.00:12:50
But in February or March, one could at least
try to sell the idea of a holy victorious war.00:12:56
And today, the announcement of mobilization, martial law,
will become a confession: everything went wrong.00:13:02
And it is not clear how to sell it to a society that
is clearly tired of everything that is happening.00:13:07
It's one thing to call people to parade along
Khreshchatyk: it can excite some young blood.00:13:14
And it’s quite another thing to invite everyone
to die together near a settlement00:13:18
in the Kherson region with
the poetic name Blagodatnoe.00:13:23
We do not know whether real mobilization
would have been possible in the first weeks.00:13:28
It's pointless to fantasize now.00:13:30
But today it is obvious: the political
moment has been missed.00:13:34
Therefore, do not take seriously the theories that
attacks or explosions in Russia or in the Crimea00:13:41
are a provocation of the
Russian special services.00:13:44
That, they say, this is so that hatred
awakens in the citizens and queues line up00:13:48
at the military registration
and enlistment offices.00:13:50
There are moments in history when
such things fit perfectly into public sentiments,00:13:54
but the lingering and inglorious war that went
into the 7th month is definitely not such a moment.00:14:02
What is the conclusion here? There are two, in fact.00:14:06
The first conclusion is that this war
made a single state out of Ukraine.00:14:11
Both Maidans, every election, attitude towards every
politician and every leader – all these events divided00:14:17
the country into strictly opposite
and strictly radical positions.00:14:22
The war is the first fact of the common
history for the whole of Ukraine.00:14:26
This is a national myth that will form
the foundation of the state.00:14:30
The unification was very expensive, but
no one asked Ukraine, now it just exists.00:14:35
Ukrainian-speaking, Russian-speaking, villager, city dweller,
mechanic or programmer – everyone lives in the war,00:14:42
everyone goes through it right now. 00:14:45
When the war is over, in Ukraine, as in any
normal democracy, discussions of everyone00:14:50
with everyone will begin again, on
any issues, but not on this one.00:14:54
Now Ukraine has
a national consensus.00:14:57
With it Ukraine approaches
its Independence Day.00:15:00
The second conclusion: predicting any actions
of Putin, we must remember that on February 24,00:15:05
Putin was in his best shape.00:15:11
Any task for him is now more difficult.00:15:14
He has a worse army, less equipment,
less money, plus a tired population.00:15:19
We do not know the value of X, the amount of action
that Putin could take in late February – early March.00:15:26
But now we know for sure that this is X
minus six months of a large-scale war.00:15:32
It is X minus thousands of pieces of equipment, minus tens
of thousands of dead and wounded, X minus 5% of GDP,00:15:40
X minus budget revenues. And the most important thing
for our regime is X minus a quarter of the ratings00:15:46
of propaganda talk shows.00:15:49
In general, the result is this: if we take two children
born in Ukraine and Russia on February 23, 2022,00:15:57
then on the first day of his life, the Russian
child had much more basic advantages.00:16:04
He was born in a country with twice the GDP per
capita, in the center of a large post-Soviet region,00:16:10
with a huge oil budget.00:16:13
After 25 years, on average, he would have
had higher incomes, a higher standard of living,00:16:20
other things being equal, he would have lived
a little better – by a quarter, maybe by a third.00:16:26
Now the situation has turned
in the opposite direction.00:16:30
Now a child born in Ukraine will spend his
entire adult life watching his country recover00:16:36
and change with the help
of the entire developed world.00:16:39
There will be a lot of
opportunities to participate.00:16:42
The Russian one will inherit a very difficult situation, in which
reparations to Ukraine will become the last problem.00:16:49
It will grow in a country that is slowly
and painfully recovering its reputation00:16:54
and emerging from international isolation, in a country
with a very high level of crime and violence in general. 00:17:01
Because we must remember a simple
social fact: violence of various forms00:17:04
and types in society is
growing synchronously.00:17:07
The more clashes of armed gangs of
veterans of Ukraine on the street and in the news,00:17:12
the more children fight at school,
the more they are beaten at home.00:17:16
Payments to Ukraine are just money.00:17:18
A real account is a country in which it is more
dangerous to live, in which it is more difficult 00:17:22
to do any business, in which a number
of industries simply do not exist,00:17:26
and talented people seek
to go abroad at any cost.00:17:30
Here's what those six months look like.00:17:32
These six months paint us such decades
ahead that no one will like the picture.00:17:39
And it is happening because of this insane
war in Ukraine unleashed by Putin.00:17:45
See you tomorrow.Description:
August 24 – Independence Day of Ukraine. August 24 – half a year of war. The symbolism is both dark and hopeful. What qualities has Ukraine demonstrated? What have we learned about the Putin regime? We'll talk about all this today. _________________________ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/maximkatz USDT (TRC20): TVLqmTPafduGyhBNpVhJCCJtvbqiA3ANxT USDT (ERC20): 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 BTC: 3C4Xp9NMSsybwG1p9YENDbbuott4voPsFH ETH: 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 Boosty: https://boosty.to/max_katz https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUGfDbfRIx51kJGGHIFo8Rw/join My book: https://shop.maxkatz.ru/-p445952767 _________________________ #halfayear #Russia #Ukraine 00:00 INTRODUCTION 03:51 SOVEREIGNTY: IMAGINARY OR TRUE 07:28 WILL THERE BE AN ATTEMPT TO SPOIL THE HOLIDAY 11:11 NO TIME TO MOBILIZE 14:01 CONCLUSION
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