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Video tags
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00:00:02
a hybrid electric aircraft would be an00:00:04
aircraft that would leverage electric00:00:06
motor and electric propulsion in00:00:07
addition to the traditional fuel sources00:00:09
that we have today just like you would00:00:11
have a hybrid electric car you could00:00:12
have a hybrid electric aircraft we've00:00:14
become a car culture and it's hard to00:00:16
break out of that cycle we have very00:00:18
powerful oil lobbies car manufacturing00:00:21
lobbies aviation lobbies all the00:00:24
entities that the high-speed rail would00:00:25
have to compete with there's a lot of00:00:27
people who think that you can buy00:00:28
autonomous vehicles today especially00:00:30
when you can go out and buy a car and00:00:32
buy an option that's called full self00:00:33
driving and pay for that the fact is it00:00:35
does not exist today00:00:38
[Music]00:00:48
china has the fastest and largest00:00:50
high-speed rail network in the world the00:00:52
country has more than 19 000 miles of00:00:55
high-speed rail the vast majority of00:00:56
which was built in the last decade00:00:58
japan's bullet trains can reach speeds00:01:00
of almost 200 miles per hour and date00:01:02
back to the 1960s they've become a00:01:05
staple for domestic travel and have00:01:06
moved more than 9 billion people without00:01:09
a single passenger casualty france began00:01:11
service of the high-speed tgv train in00:01:14
1981 and the rest of europe quickly00:01:16
followed and high-speed rail is quickly00:01:19
expanding all over the world in places00:01:21
like india saudi arabia russia iran and00:01:24
morocco and then there's the us00:01:32
[Music]00:01:36
the us used to be one of the world's00:01:37
global leaders in rail but after world00:01:40
war ii there was a massive shift if you00:01:42
look at the united states prior to 194500:01:46
we had a very extensive rail system00:01:48
everywhere it all was working great00:01:51
except the number of companies in the00:01:53
auto and oil industries decided that00:01:57
for them to have a prosperous future00:01:58
they really needed to basically help00:02:01
phase out all the rail and get us all00:02:03
into cars the inflexible rails00:02:06
permanently embedded in cobblestones00:02:08
were paved over to provide smooth00:02:11
comfortable transportation via diesel00:02:14
motor coach00:02:15
general motors firestone tire standard00:02:18
oil and a few other companies that got00:02:20
together and they were able to buy up00:02:22
all the nation's streetcar systems and00:02:25
then quickly start phasing out service00:02:28
and literally dismantling all the00:02:29
systems over about a 10-year span in the00:02:32
1950s president dwight eisenhower signed00:02:34
a bill to create the national interstate00:02:36
system it allocated about 25 billion00:02:38
dollars to build 41 000 miles of00:02:41
highways the federal government paid for00:02:43
90 of that the states covered the final00:02:45
10 and rail fell by the wayside can't00:02:48
you see that this highway means a whole00:02:50
new way of life for the children00:02:52
and a way of life that we have a chance00:02:54
to help plan and and to build00:02:57
we dedicated a huge amount of dollars to00:02:59
building automobile infrastructure in00:03:01
the middle of the 20th century and we're00:03:03
still kind of attached to that model of00:03:06
development we went from a rail served00:03:10
country to a auto-dependent nation by00:03:13
the 1960s we've become a car culture and00:03:16
it's hard to break out of that cycle00:03:18
not to mention the fact that in our00:03:20
political system we have very powerful00:03:22
oil lobbies car manufacturing lobbies00:03:25
aviation lobbies all the00:03:28
entities that the high-speed rail would00:03:30
have to compete with this is the00:03:32
american dream00:03:33
of freedom on wheels we averaged some00:03:36
850 cars per thousand inhabitants in the00:03:40
us in china it's only 250.00:03:44
and we've never gone back but according00:03:46
to some this country's transportation00:03:48
ecosystem is reaching a tipping point00:03:51
when you look at what's happening with00:03:52
the corridor development again states00:03:55
across the u.s who are recognizing they00:03:58
are running out of space to expand their00:04:00
highways or interstates there are limits00:04:03
at airports there's aviation congestion00:04:06
so what are the options a better rail00:04:08
system is one and could come with00:04:10
significant benefits it's largely an00:04:12
environmental good to switch from air00:04:15
traffic and car traffic to electrified00:04:18
high-speed rail that's that's a much00:04:20
lower emission way of traveling when the00:04:23
high speed rail between madrid and00:04:24
barcelona and spain came into operation00:04:27
i mean air travel just plummeted between00:04:29
those cities and everyone switched over00:04:30
to high speed rail which was very00:04:32
convenient people were happier dude they00:04:34
weren't forced to switch they did it00:04:35
because it was a nicer option to take00:04:36
high-speed rail there's a sort of a rule00:04:38
of thumb for trips that are under three00:04:41
or four hours in trip length from city00:04:44
to city those usually end up with about00:04:46
80 or 90 percent of the the travel00:04:49
market from aviation where rail exists00:04:52
and it's convenient in high speed it's00:04:54
very popular america i think is waking00:04:56
up to this idea that rail is a good00:04:59
investment for transportation00:05:00
infrastructure one survey showed 6300:05:03
percent of americans would use00:05:05
high-speed rail if it was available to00:05:07
them younger people want it even more00:05:10
right now the main passenger rail option00:05:12
in the us is amtrak it's operated as a00:05:14
for-profit company but the federal00:05:16
government is its majority stakeholder00:05:19
train systems reaching top speeds of00:05:21
over 110 to 150 miles per hour are00:05:24
generally considered high speed and only00:05:26
one of amtrak's lines could be00:05:27
considered as such that's its acela line00:05:30
in the northeast corridor running00:05:31
between dc new york and boston one of00:05:34
the challenges we face is that the00:05:35
northeast corridor has a lot of00:05:37
curvature a lot of geometry we really00:05:40
operate a cella express on an alignment00:05:43
that in some places was designed back in00:05:46
the 1900s and so it really was never00:05:49
designed for high-speed rail and while00:05:52
the acela line can reach up to 150 miles00:05:54
per hour it only does so for 34 miles of00:05:57
its 457 mile span its average speed00:06:01
between new york and boston is about 6500:06:03
miles per hour which is in stark00:06:05
contrast to china's dedicated high-speed00:06:07
rail system which regularly travels at00:06:10
over 200 miles per hour but some people00:06:12
are trying to fix that00:06:13
[Music]00:06:15
in 2008 california voted yes on00:06:17
high-speed rail now a decade later00:06:19
construction is underway in the central00:06:21
valley of the state and right now it is00:06:23
the only truly high-speed rail system00:06:25
under construction in the u.s00:06:27
ultimately high-speed rail is a 520-mile00:06:31
project that links san francisco to los00:06:34
angeles and anaheim that's phase one00:06:36
and it's a project that's being built in00:06:39
building blocks00:06:40
so the one behind me is the largest00:06:43
building block that we're starting with00:06:45
this 119 mile segment this segment will00:06:48
run from bakersfield to merced00:06:50
eventually the plan is to build a line00:06:51
from san francisco to anaheim just south00:06:54
of la but as it stands the state is00:06:56
almost 50 billion dollars short of what00:06:58
it needs to actually do that the current00:07:01
project as planned would cost too much00:07:04
and respectfully take too long00:07:06
there's been too little oversight00:07:09
and not enough transparency we do have00:07:11
the capacity to complete a high-speed00:07:13
rail link between merced and bakersfield00:07:17
after gavin newsom made that speech00:07:19
president trump threatened to pull00:07:20
federal funding for the project we'll00:07:22
continue to seek other funding we hope00:07:24
the federal government will00:07:26
resume funding the00:07:28
contributing new funds to the project i00:07:30
think in the future as the federal00:07:32
government has funded major construction00:07:35
of infrastructure over time they'll00:07:37
again00:07:38
direct money to high-speed rail because00:07:40
in fact it's not just california but00:07:42
other states are also interested in00:07:44
high-speed rail systems to complete the00:07:46
entire line as planned the official00:07:48
estimate is now over 77 billion dollars00:07:51
and it's unclear where the money will00:07:53
come from so why is it so expensive part00:07:56
of the problem in california the big00:07:58
price tag is getting through the00:08:00
tehachapi very expensive tunneling or00:08:03
over the pacheco past again into san00:08:05
jose from the central valley00:08:07
you know eastern china00:08:09
the flatlands of japan where they've00:08:11
built the shinkansen all of those are00:08:13
settings where they have didn't incur00:08:15
the very high expense of boring and00:08:18
tunneling that we face so the costs are00:08:20
different and a lot of the money is00:08:22
spent before construction can even begin00:08:25
just in this little segment here alone00:08:27
we're dealing with the private property00:08:29
owner we're dealing with a rail company00:08:31
we're dealing with the state agency and00:08:34
so just the whole coordination then00:08:35
we're dealing with a utility company00:08:38
just in this very small section we had00:08:40
to relocate two miles of freeway and00:08:43
that was roughly 150 million dollars per00:08:46
mile so there's a lot of moving pieces00:08:49
to you know anywhere we start00:08:50
constructing china is is the place that00:08:53
many folks compare00:08:55
they have like 29 000 kilometers of00:08:59
high-speed rail and 20 years ago they00:09:01
had none so how00:09:03
have they been able to do it so quickly00:09:05
and00:09:06
part of it is that the state owns the00:09:09
land00:09:10
they don't have private property rights00:09:11
like we have in the u.s you don't have00:09:13
the regulations we have in terms of00:09:15
labor laws and00:09:17
environmental regulations that add to00:09:20
cost it also delays the projects for00:09:23
some reason and i've never really quite00:09:25
seen an adequate explanation as to why00:09:27
cost to build transit or many big00:09:30
infrastructure projects are just00:09:31
dramatically higher than in other parts00:09:33
of the world including another advanced00:09:35
countries but the bottom line is we're00:09:37
really bad at just building things00:09:39
cheaply and quickly in uh in the us in00:09:41
general so it's not just rail00:09:43
infrastructure that is expensive all00:09:46
transportation infrastructure is just00:09:48
the physical investment in a freeway00:09:50
usually will be00:09:51
five to eight to ten million per mile00:09:54
but if you add seismic issues and land00:09:57
acquisition and utilities and00:10:00
environmental mitigation and remediation00:10:03
of soils and and factors like that it00:10:06
can become as high as 100 or 200 million00:10:09
a mile the numbers for a high speed rail00:10:12
can vary you know anywhere from 20 to00:10:15
80 million00:10:17
per mile the big reason why america is00:10:19
behind on high-speed rail is primarily00:10:21
money we don't commit the dollars needed00:10:23
to build these systems it's really as00:10:25
simple as that and it's largely a00:10:27
political issue they don't have00:10:28
political leaders who really want to00:10:30
dedicate the dollars needed there's a00:10:32
lot of forces in america that really00:10:34
don't want to see rail become our major00:10:37
mode of transportation especially00:10:39
because it will affect passenger numbers00:10:41
on airplanes it'll affect the use of00:10:44
autos so you have the politics the00:10:47
message shaping and then the straight00:10:49
advertising and all three of those00:10:51
coordinate and work together to keep00:10:52
america kind of focused on cars and not00:10:56
focused on rail some of the earliest00:10:58
support for rail came from the nixton00:11:00
administration some of the original00:11:02
capital subsidies and00:11:05
operating subsidies for urban transit00:11:07
came from the republican parties i think00:11:09
it's only more recently that maybe this has00:11:12
shifted that more liberal-leaning folks00:11:15
who care about climate and a whole host00:11:17
of urban issues00:11:19
have really argued for investing very00:11:21
heavily in rail if you had democratic00:11:23
leadership on the senate and a different00:11:25
president or potentially some leverage00:11:27
for a president to sign a new budget00:11:28
bill with some dollars for high-speed00:11:30
rail that could override those00:11:33
objections from republicans in congress00:11:34
but i think it's mostly ideological00:11:36
they're big on highways they're big on00:11:38
things like toll roads they just they00:11:40
don't want the government spending00:11:41
dollars on this kind of project and they00:11:43
see it as you know something those00:11:44
socialist european countries do but not00:11:46
something that should be done in you00:11:48
know car loving america in my judgment00:11:50
it would take a very strong00:11:52
federal commitment almost sort of a00:11:55
post-second world war interstate highway00:11:58
kind of00:11:59
large-scale national commitment this is00:12:01
why some high-speed rail projects are00:12:03
trying to avoid public funding00:12:05
altogether one company texas central00:12:07
plans to build a bullet train from00:12:09
houston to dallas without using a dime00:12:11
of taxpayer money we're taking what is a00:12:14
laborious unreliable00:12:16
four hour drive if you're lucky and00:12:18
turning that into a reliable safe 9000:12:21
minutes00:12:22
and when you look at that as a business00:12:25
plan being driven by data this is the00:12:27
right place to build the first00:12:29
high-speed train in the united states00:12:31
the texas project is backed by investors00:12:33
motivated to make a profit and will use00:12:35
proven japanese rail technology texas00:12:38
central's goal is to complete the00:12:40
project by 2025 another private company00:12:43
is even further along with its rail00:12:45
system in florida it's expanding its00:12:47
higher speed train from miami to orlando00:12:50
orlando's the most heavily visited city00:12:51
the united states miami the most heavily00:12:53
visited international city of the united00:12:55
states is too far to drive is too short00:12:57
to fly we have the rail link and that00:12:59
was really the genesis of of the project00:13:01
west edens has invested heavily in00:13:03
florida's rail project which used to be00:13:05
called brightline brightline recently00:13:07
rebranded to virgin trains as the00:13:09
company partnered with richard branson's00:13:11
virgin group the team at brightline00:13:14
which is now called virgin trains has00:13:15
proven that00:13:17
that it can work that people actually00:13:20
want to get out of their cars and they'd00:13:22
love to be on trains in order to reach00:13:24
profitability the company sacrificed00:13:26
speed to save money if you want to00:13:28
really go high speed you have to grade00:13:31
separate so you basically have to build00:13:32
a bridge for 250 miles that you then put00:13:35
a train on that sounds hard and it00:13:37
sounds expensive and it's both of those00:13:38
things so a huge difference in cost a00:13:40
huge difference in time to build and not00:13:42
that much of a reduction in service and00:13:44
now tech companies are getting involved00:13:46
with infrastructure projects in the00:13:48
pacific northwest a high-speed rail plan00:13:50
is underway to connect portland seattle00:13:52
and vancouver microsoft contributed 30000:13:55
thousand dollars towards research for00:13:56
the project our number one priority for00:13:58
microsoft as well is to really see and00:14:00
pursue this high-speed rail effort00:14:02
happen if you look at around the united00:14:04
states where all the fortune 50000:14:07
companies are located they all are in a00:14:09
similar situation to microsoft the00:14:11
housing is unaffordable traffic00:14:12
congestion is epic it's too hard to get00:14:15
anywhere and to get employees so00:14:17
high-speed rail can solve this same00:14:20
exact problem in numerous regions around00:14:22
the united states so is the private00:14:24
sector the answer to bringing high-speed00:14:26
rail to the u.s if the private sector00:14:28
wants to invest in transportation and as00:14:31
long as it's not00:14:32
you know impinging on the00:14:34
public taxpayers i don't see a problem00:14:36
with the private sector moving forward00:14:38
and i think there is some truth that the00:14:40
private sector is going to have much00:14:41
more of an incentive to hurry up on the00:14:43
construction and get things done more00:14:44
quickly more cheaply that said the00:14:46
private sector still has to operate with00:14:48
the oversight and the regulatory00:14:50
responsibilities of the public sector so00:14:52
for example environmental review doesn't00:14:54
go away just because it's a private00:14:55
sector project00:14:57
labor standards don't go away the00:14:59
difference is that they don't have to00:15:00
keep trying to sell a project to the00:15:02
public for a vote to raise taxes or sell00:15:05
bonds some people remain optimistic that00:15:07
the u.s can catch up to the rest of the00:15:09
world and have a robust high-speed rail00:15:11
system we're building that right now00:15:13
behind us00:15:14
this 119 mile segment that we want to00:15:17
expand with the money we already have to00:15:19
170 miles00:15:21
it's going to serve a population of 300:15:22
million people in the central valley so00:15:25
it's not only do i believe but it's00:15:27
under construction a lot of activity is00:15:29
now taking shape state rail authorities00:15:32
have been shaped in four or five states00:15:34
so they're actually taking these on now00:15:36
as a legitimate project and moving00:15:38
forward i think the future is very00:15:41
bright for train travel in the united00:15:43
states there's broad consensus with our00:15:45
policy leaders00:15:47
in industry00:15:48
that it's time to move an infrastructure00:15:51
bill and that will certainly help00:15:53
kick-start u.s rail others are much less00:15:56
confident i wish i were a little more00:15:58
optimistic it's just00:16:01
very00:16:02
difficult to make the economics work00:16:04
here00:16:05
no one has embraced it as a strong part00:16:07
of their political platform there's just00:16:09
too many other tough pressing problems00:16:11
we're facing i don't see us00:16:13
catching up to where the rest of the00:16:15
world is it would take such a massive00:16:16
infusion of dollars for that to happen00:16:19
in california and probably00:16:21
waiving a number of environmental00:16:23
requirements and some other government00:16:25
regulations that hinder the quick00:16:27
deployment of these projects in favor of00:16:29
other values my own instincts are that00:16:32
it's going to be decades and decades and00:16:33
decades before you'll be able to go00:16:36
a one-seat trip from san diego to00:16:39
sacramento or san francisco it'd be nice00:16:42
if there was just one simple answer it's00:16:44
this litany of factors that collectively00:16:47
add up that make this so hard to pull00:16:49
off in the united states00:16:52
instead of retrofitting cars with00:16:54
sensors and computers and saying hey00:16:55
here's a self-driving car we think00:16:57
there's an opportunity to create a new00:16:58
type of vehicle that from the very00:17:00
beginning was designed to move people00:17:02
around autonomously00:17:04
more companies are trying to bring00:17:05
self-driving cars to the masses than00:17:07
ever before yet a truly autonomous00:17:09
vehicle still doesn't exist and it's not00:17:12
clear if or when our driverless future00:17:14
will arrive00:17:15
proponents like elon musk have touted an00:17:17
aggressive timeline but missed their00:17:18
goals and others in the industry have00:17:21
also missed projections00:17:22
well our goal is to deploy these00:17:24
vehicles in 2019 so you'll have the00:17:26
option to not drive it's not happening00:17:28
in 202000:17:29
it's happening today we wanted to check00:17:32
in where exactly are we with00:17:34
self-driving cars and when can we expect00:17:36
them to be part of our daily lives00:17:45
the current state of driverless cars is00:17:47
very interesting because we've passed00:17:49
what people refer to as peak hype00:17:52
and we've entered what's called the00:17:53
trough of disillusionment which is even00:17:56
people within the industry are saying00:17:58
gee it turns out this is a lot harder00:18:00
than we thought00:18:01
we're definitely not anywhere near as00:18:03
far along as a lot of people thought we00:18:05
would be three years ago but i think00:18:07
over the last 18 to 24 months there's00:18:10
been you know a real injection of00:18:12
reality there was a sense maybe a year00:18:14
or two ago that ah our algorithms are so00:18:16
good we're ready to launch we're going00:18:18
to launch driver's skills in any minute00:18:21
and then obviously there's been these00:18:22
setbacks of people getting killed or00:18:24
accidents happening and now we're00:18:27
a lot more cautious00:18:29
several big players have begun to walk00:18:31
back their predictions on how soon we00:18:32
could see this technology even waymo's00:18:35
chief external officer admitted that the00:18:36
hype around itself driving cars has00:18:38
become unmanageable the technology has00:18:40
come a long way but there's still a lot00:18:42
of work to be done there's the00:18:43
perception which is you know using the00:18:45
sensors to figure out what's around the00:18:47
vehicle and the environment around the00:18:48
vehicle prediction figuring out what00:18:50
those what those road users are going to00:18:53
be doing next in the next few seconds00:18:55
turns out the perception and especially00:18:58
prediction are really really hard00:19:01
problems to solve00:19:02
companies tackling self-driving today00:19:04
are taking two general approaches some00:19:06
are building a self-driving car from the00:19:08
ground up others are developing the00:19:10
brains that drive the car an early00:19:12
leader was google who started its00:19:13
self-driving car project in 2009 known00:19:16
as waymo today the company is developing00:19:18
hardware and software that can function00:19:20
as the brains in a self-driving car00:19:22
aurora is taking a similar approach00:19:24
founded in 2017 by early players from00:19:26
uber tesla and google's self-driving00:19:28
initiatives it's already raised 62000:19:30
million in funding from amazon and other00:19:32
big name investors aurora is testing00:19:35
vehicles on the road in pittsburgh00:19:36
pennsylvania and out here in the bay00:19:38
area we don't yet let the public in our00:19:40
cars our cars are on the road we have00:19:42
two of our test operators in there the00:19:44
technology we're building can operate00:19:46
from a compact electric car to a minivan00:19:50
to even a big long haul truck argo ai00:19:53
and aptiv are examples of other00:19:54
companies taking a similar approach lyft00:19:56
is developing its own self-driving00:19:58
systems now too and offering00:19:59
self-driving rides on its app through00:20:01
partnerships in select areas00:20:03
self-driving is is too big for just one00:20:05
company and one effort and if you look00:20:07
at our strategy that is why we're00:20:09
working with partners on the open00:20:10
platform active and waymo and why we're00:20:13
building uh the tech here companies like00:20:15
tesla zoox and gm with its cruise00:20:18
division are making their own vehicles00:20:20
aiming for self-driving cars that can00:20:22
operate in all environments this is the00:20:24
engineering challenge of our generation00:20:25
we've raised seven and a quarter billion00:20:27
dollars of capital we have deep00:20:29
integration with both general motors and00:20:31
honda which we think is essential00:20:33
to when you're building mission critical00:20:35
safety systems and building those in a00:20:37
way that you can deploy them at very00:20:38
large scale00:20:39
crews which was acquired by general00:20:41
motors in 2016 has been testing its00:20:43
fleet of vehicles in san francisco with00:20:45
safety drivers on board to give you a00:20:47
sense for the magnitude of the00:20:48
difference between suburban driving and00:20:51
what we're doing every day on the00:20:52
streets of san francisco our cars on00:20:55
average see more00:20:56
activity in one minute of san francisco00:20:58
driving than they see in one hour of00:21:00
driving in arizona zuke's led by the00:21:03
former chief strategy officer at intel00:21:05
is working on creating an all-in-one00:21:06
self-driving taxi system with plans to00:21:09
launch in 2020. instead of retrofitting00:21:11
cars with sensors and computers and00:21:13
saying hey here's a self-driving car we00:21:15
think there's an opportunity to create a00:21:16
new type of vehicle that from the very00:21:18
beginning was designed to move people00:21:20
around autonomously nissan and tesla00:21:22
both have semi-autonomous systems on the00:21:24
roads today tesla's has been available00:21:26
in beta on its vehicles since 2015 and00:21:28
drivers have been known to use the00:21:30
current system hands-free tesla's00:21:32
promising full self-driving software is00:21:34
just around the corner00:21:36
it's going to be tight it still does00:21:37
appear that00:21:39
will be at least in limited in00:21:41
early access release of a future00:21:44
complete full self driving feature this00:21:46
year i think tesla is actually a lot00:21:49
further back than they would like the00:21:50
world to to believe they are because00:21:53
they they are in fact so much more00:21:54
limited in terms of their hardware00:21:57
others are making self-driving shuttles00:21:59
that operate along designated routes00:22:01
only or focusing on trucks with00:22:03
long-haul highway routes and then there00:22:05
are companies like ghost and comma ai00:22:07
working on aftermarket kits essentially00:22:09
hardware that could be installed in00:22:11
older cars to bring them new00:22:12
self-driving capabilities one day for00:22:14
all players in this space the path ahead00:22:16
is filled with challenges chief among00:22:18
them proving the technology is safe00:22:20
driverless systems have to meet a very00:22:23
high safety bar00:22:25
that has to be better than a human00:22:27
before they're deployed at scale00:22:30
there are no federally established00:22:31
standards or testing protocols for00:22:32
automated driving systems in the u.s00:22:34
today but there have been fatal crashes00:22:36
a woman named elaine hertzberg was00:22:38
killed by an autonomous uber00:22:41
with a safety driver who was paying no00:22:43
attention00:22:44
this woman was crossing the street00:22:46
walking her bicycle00:22:48
should easily have been seen by the00:22:49
autonomous vehicle was not was run over00:22:52
nobody stepped on the brakes in 2016 a00:22:55
tesla fan named joshua brown died in a00:22:57
crash while using autopilot hands-free00:22:59
in florida other autopilot-involved00:23:01
accidents are now under investigation00:23:03
still the industry is hopeful that00:23:05
autonomous vehicles will make the roads00:23:07
far safer than they are today really the00:23:09
kind of zero to one moment for the00:23:11
industry will be when we can remove00:23:13
those safety drivers safely00:23:15
and the vehicle can operate without the00:23:16
presence of any human others like elon00:23:20
musk have said you know it's almost00:23:23
irresponsible not to have these vehicles00:23:25
out there because they are safer and00:23:27
will be safer than human drivers even if00:23:30
we could say that an autonomous vehicle00:23:33
was better than a human driver it00:23:35
doesn't mean that an autonomous vehicle00:23:37
is better than a human driver plus all00:23:40
the advanced driver assist systems we00:23:42
have00:23:43
when looking at when the tech could00:23:44
actually be ready one of the principal00:23:46
metrics touted by companies is the00:23:48
number of miles driven but not all miles00:23:50
are created equal when testing automated00:23:52
systems you could take an autonomous00:23:54
vehicle00:23:55
and go you know00:23:57
put it on an oval track you know or just00:23:59
a straight road00:24:01
and you could drive 100 million miles00:24:04
but that's not really going to tell you00:24:05
much about how well the system actually00:24:07
functions because it's not encountering00:24:09
the kinds of things that are actually00:24:11
challenging in a driving environment00:24:14
testing self-driving vehicles out on00:24:15
public roads isn't enough they need to00:24:17
be exposed to every imaginable scenario00:24:19
so companies rely on simulation we can00:24:22
create situations that we're basically00:24:25
never going to see or very rarely see so00:24:27
for example00:24:29
we might want to simulate what happens00:24:31
is a bicycle comes through an00:24:33
intersection runs a red light and00:24:35
crashes into the side of our car turns00:24:37
out that doesn't happen very often in00:24:39
the real world but we want to know that00:24:41
if that happens our vehicles are going00:24:43
to do something safe basically allow the00:24:45
car to practice uh up in the cloud00:24:47
instead of on the road when you're00:24:49
testing autonomous vehicles out on00:24:51
public roads not only are the people00:24:53
riding in that car part of the00:24:54
experiment but so is everybody else00:24:56
around you and they didn't consent to00:24:58
being part of an experiment00:25:00
i remain concerned that humans will be00:25:02
used as test dummies00:25:05
instead of self-certification and00:25:07
deregulation i want to see strong00:25:09
independent safety regulations from the00:25:12
agencies in front of us today00:25:15
the self-certification approach did not00:25:17
work out well for the boeing 737 max 800:25:21
and now boeing is paying the price00:25:24
we should heed that lesson when it comes00:25:26
to finding out the best way to deploy00:25:29
autonomous vehicles00:25:31
lawmakers held hearings this month to00:25:33
figure out how to keep the public safe00:25:35
without holding back self-driving00:25:36
innovation in september the national00:25:38
highway traffic safety administration00:25:40
released new federal guidelines for00:25:42
automated driving systems but they're00:25:44
only voluntary suggestions at this point00:25:46
state legislation is farther along as of00:25:48
october 41 states have either enacted00:25:51
laws or signed executive orders00:25:53
regulating autonomous vehicles00:25:55
with regulatory questions looming it's00:25:57
no surprise that self-driving companies00:25:59
are proceeding cautiously at first what00:26:01
we're going to be seeing in the next00:26:02
several years00:26:04
is more limited deployments in very00:26:06
specific00:26:07
areas where there's confidence that the00:26:09
technology can work00:26:11
i think we'll see limited deployments of00:26:13
self-driving vehicles in the next five00:26:15
years or so00:26:17
you'll see these moving goods and you'll00:26:19
see them moving people but you'll see00:26:20
them specifically in fleet00:26:23
aurora says its systems could be00:26:25
integrated into any vehicle from fleets00:26:27
of taxis to long-haul trucks the cost of00:26:29
self-driving technology is another00:26:31
deciding factor for how it will be00:26:32
deployed most consumers are never going00:26:35
to own a vehicle that's really00:26:37
autonomous00:26:38
because the technology is expensive and00:26:40
there's a whole raft of issues around00:26:43
product liability and you know making00:26:45
sure that it's properly maintained and00:26:47
sensors are calibrated that's one reason00:26:49
ride hailing companies lyft and uber are00:26:51
getting in the game we have two00:26:52
autonomous initiatives one is the open00:26:54
platform where we're connecting lift00:26:56
passengers with our partner self-driving00:26:59
vehicles so this is aptiv in las vegas00:27:01
and waymo in chandler arizona and then00:27:04
also kind of the product experience for00:27:06
the tech that you see here which is00:27:07
level five as av companies inch toward00:27:10
the mainstream public perception simple00:27:12
understanding of the tech has become00:27:13
another issue that could impact progress00:27:16
some in particular in the industry have00:27:17
done a disservice to the public in over00:27:20
hyping the technology before it's really00:27:22
ready it's still not very clear to most00:27:24
people what we mean when we say00:27:26
driverless cars waymo00:27:29
and general motors cruise automation00:27:32
are very close to having what they refer00:27:35
to as level five cars00:27:37
most of the time in other words again00:27:40
they can in theory function uh all by00:27:43
themselves00:27:44
but so far it seems that they function00:27:47
like a you know 15 year old driver00:27:49
hoping to get a driver's license00:27:51
there's a lot of people who think that00:27:52
you can buy autonomous vehicles today00:27:54
you know especially when you can go out00:27:56
and buy a car and buy an option that's00:27:58
that's called full self driving and pay00:28:00
for that you expect that it actually00:28:02
exists00:28:03
and the the fact is it does not exist00:28:05
today with an uncertain timeline and a history00:28:07
of missed targets public confusion is no00:28:09
surprise despite big developments most00:28:12
companies have recognized we are still00:28:13
years away from having truly00:28:15
self-driving cars as part of our daily00:28:17
lives one big question is when is the00:28:19
car ready you have to have a good sense00:28:21
of all of the scenarios and all of the00:28:22
situations that the vehicle will need to00:28:25
encounter and that just takes time00:28:27
we expect level four vehicles to be00:28:31
feasible in small quantities within the00:28:33
next five years and what that means is00:28:36
you'll probably see hundreds00:28:38
or maybe thousands00:28:40
of vehicles out either delivering00:28:42
packages or moving people's through00:28:44
neighborhood or maybe hauling goods00:28:47
on our freeways and now even the experts00:28:50
hesitate to make promises on when true00:28:52
self-driving will get here you always00:28:53
have to assume00:28:55
that00:28:56
the the user is going to find a way to00:28:58
misuse the technology assume the worst00:29:01
and then design for that i think it's a00:29:03
mistake to be over promoting the00:29:05
technology and over hyping it00:29:07
when it's still a very much a work in00:29:09
progress00:29:10
this is something we need to do with00:29:12
society with the community and not at00:29:14
society and we take that very seriously00:29:16
we're building mission critical safety00:29:18
systems that are going to have a huge00:29:19
positive impact on people's lives and00:29:21
the tech adage of move fast and break00:29:23
things most assuredly does not apply to00:29:25
what we're doing here00:29:34
ever since there's been flight people00:29:36
have this vision00:29:37
and i think you and i have this vision00:29:39
you're on the highway you're going like00:29:40
two miles an hour and you just00:29:42
desperately want to push the button to00:29:43
go vertical and take off over this it's00:29:46
just an irresistible fantasy that all00:29:49
drivers have had00:29:51
hey doc we better back up we don't have00:29:53
enough roads to get up to 88 roads00:29:56
well we're going we don't need00:29:58
roads00:30:00
these visionary scenes depicted in backs00:30:02
of the future and blade runner did not00:30:04
exactly pan out instead we continued to00:30:07
waste hours stuck in traffic fantasizing00:30:09
about flying cars00:30:10
yet we don't have them even though the00:30:12
potential market is huge00:30:14
the market for urban air mobility is00:30:16
expected to reach 1.5 trillion by 2040.00:30:19
companies like boeing airbus toyota and00:30:21
uber are recognizing the need for more00:30:23
efficient travel and injecting millions00:30:25
into developing vetoes or vertical00:30:27
takeoff and landing vehicles00:30:30
though these operate more like massive00:30:31
drones or helicopters than they do cars00:30:34
vitols have the potential to00:30:35
fundamentally change the way we commute00:30:37
in cities00:30:38
so what's taking so long and will we00:30:40
ever be able to push a button and zoom00:30:42
over traffic with our car plane hybrid00:30:45
[Music]00:30:47
the biggest challenge according to00:30:49
engineers in creating a flying car is to00:30:52
create a machine that is robust rugged00:30:54
and probably heavy enough to withstand00:30:57
the rigors of the road the bumps and the00:30:59
occasional fender benders and at the00:31:02
same time a machine that is light enough00:31:04
and aerodynamic enough00:31:06
to be safe in the air most engineers00:31:09
claim that although it was an00:31:11
interesting problem00:31:13
it was not a solvable one the balance00:31:16
would always be wrong or the weight00:31:18
would be wrong and you could never do00:31:20
better than creating an inferior car00:31:24
that would also be an inferior airplane00:31:27
and that you were much better off00:31:29
making an airplane and making a car and00:31:31
keeping them separate andrew glass is an00:31:34
author and illustrator who spent years00:31:35
researching flying cars for his book he00:31:37
says that initially the notion of roads00:31:39
seemed far more far-fetched than flying00:31:41
cars00:31:42
even though there were sort of00:31:44
rudimentary cars and rudimentary planes00:31:47
there were no roads to speak of and so00:31:49
there was this fascinating kind of00:31:52
archaeology00:31:54
of a period where00:31:56
people couldn't even imagine00:31:58
a complex comfortable highway system but00:32:02
what they could imagine00:32:03
was bolting00:32:05
the wings of a rudimentary airplane00:32:08
to the top of a rudimentary car and00:32:11
flying over00:32:12
the countryside until they got to a00:32:14
landing strip where they would land00:32:16
disengage the wings and drive to where00:32:19
they were actually going00:32:21
people have been trying to build car00:32:22
plane hybrids since the early 1900s00:32:25
in 1917 the curtis auto plane debuted at00:32:28
the pan-american aeronautics exposition00:32:30
in new york00:32:31
the autoplane had a removable fuselage00:32:33
wings and tail and actually looked like00:32:34
a car when it traveled down the road00:32:36
but with world war one in full swing00:32:38
priorities quickly shifted from building00:32:40
a flying car to building military planes00:32:43
and the auto plane was eventually00:32:44
dismantled for parts00:32:46
in the mid-40s public interest in flying00:32:48
cars was resparked after robert fulton00:32:50
flew his airphibian prototype the00:32:52
arphibian used the same controls for00:32:53
flying and driving and required the00:32:55
drivers leave their airplane parts00:32:57
behind when you drove it like a car00:33:00
three years after its first flight the00:33:01
amphibian became the first flying car to00:33:03
receive certification from the civic00:33:05
aeronautics authority predecessor to the00:33:07
faa but in the end the arphibian's high00:33:09
production cost meant it was never made00:33:11
on a wide scale00:33:13
still the amphibian became the00:33:14
inspiration for molt taylor's aerocar a00:33:16
few years later the aerocart 2 earned00:33:19
the green light from aviation00:33:20
authorities and complied with all road00:33:22
vehicle codes that existed at the time00:33:24
it was everything that people hoped it00:33:27
would be it was safe00:33:29
it was versatile it was an actual00:33:32
good-looking car that was comfortable00:33:35
and easy to drive it was also00:33:38
a plane00:33:40
that was functional would take you three00:33:43
to five hundred miles but he just could00:33:46
not find backers for it00:33:48
ford was curious about the aerocar and00:33:50
in 1970 even commissioned a study to00:33:53
gauge the market interest in such a00:33:54
vehicle00:33:55
ford predicted they could sell about 2500:33:57
000 aero cars but the company eventually00:33:59
decided to pass on the project after00:34:01
engineers and lawmakers raised concerns00:34:04
when the department of transportation00:34:06
heard about it00:34:07
they went a little crazy with the idea00:34:10
that ford was getting ready to put a lot00:34:12
of drivers flying over suburban areas00:34:16
and00:34:17
the engineers at ford00:34:20
came back with the usual00:34:23
criticism that to make this car safe00:34:26
enough to meet all the safety standards00:34:28
it would become too heavy to be an00:34:30
effective airplane and so the technology00:34:33
there just took a dip00:34:35
it's revived i think with00:34:38
the notion of self-driving cars00:34:43
[Music]00:34:45
flying cars have kind of become this00:34:48
this byword where people say00:34:50
they promised me flying cars and all i00:34:52
got was you know fill in the blank yeah00:34:54
why don't we have flying cars so00:34:57
what we're close00:34:59
actually that's close00:35:01
we're captioning not00:35:15
batteries available motors to make these00:35:16
things affordable and reliable electric00:35:18
propulsion is kind of a key enabler and00:35:21
so that's that's really the00:35:22
differentiator that's uh that's making00:35:23
it possible00:35:25
there have been a number of innovations00:35:27
through hardware software00:35:29
telecommunications and infrastructure00:35:32
that have led to this acceleration of of00:35:35
both capital00:35:36
and um early commerciality and00:35:39
proto-commerciality00:35:40
of urban air mobility a few of these00:35:42
things are weight reduction carbon fiber00:35:45
composites more dense and higher energy00:35:48
density batteries00:35:50
which improve the power to weight00:35:52
smaller lighter electric motors more00:35:54
powerful micro motors for what they call00:35:57
dep or distributed electronic propulsion00:36:00
an electric motor also has the ability00:36:02
to you can control00:36:04
torque right sort of the power that the00:36:06
motor throws off and you can control00:36:08
rotation speed very effectively and so00:36:11
for something like a vertical takeoff00:36:13
and landing vehicle where you need a lot00:36:16
of power to get the vehicle in the air00:36:18
you don't need a lot of power in what00:36:20
you call cruise right as the vehicle00:36:22
transports through the air and then you00:36:24
need a fair amount of power to get the00:36:25
vehicles back safely on the ground an00:36:27
electric propulsion system and really00:36:29
high technology motors and motor00:36:31
controllers are perfect for that mission00:36:33
these were technologies that really only00:36:35
existed in a military application until00:36:38
recently and we're now seeing it come00:36:40
out of the dod and darpa in the military00:36:42
field into the commercial market00:36:45
adding to that then lower price and a00:36:47
higher capability for sense and compute00:36:50
so all the things that you would see in00:36:52
an autonomous car prototype can be00:36:54
applied in an urban air mobility vehicle00:36:57
an autonomous operation experts don't00:36:59
see this as too much of a challenge for00:37:01
vitols since these vehicles will be00:37:02
doing a lot of repetitive tasks00:37:04
autonomous control technology has00:37:07
matured to a stage where we can put into00:37:09
good use the mission is very simple00:37:12
you just take off carry some people00:37:14
safely and then land and so for a simple00:37:17
mission uh flying their craft should be00:37:20
simple00:37:21
and so we think that it is right for00:37:24
application of autonomy00:37:26
this this level of autonomy is not any00:37:29
it's not00:37:31
too far or far-fetched anymore00:37:33
these advancements in key technologies00:37:35
have led to a number of flying car00:37:36
prototypes00:37:38
massachusetts-based terrafugia has00:37:40
managed to get road and faa approval for00:37:42
its transition model though it's not yet00:37:43
commercially available00:37:45
slovakia-based aeromobil 2 has not sold00:37:47
any vehicles and is awaiting approval00:37:49
from the european aviation safety agency00:37:52
for its aeromobil 4.0 car00:37:54
however both of these companies seem to00:37:56
be turning their focus to vetoes00:37:58
terrafugia's newest model the tf2 will00:38:01
have removable pods that can be docked00:38:03
to either an air vehicle or car wheels00:38:05
meanwhile a rendering of aeromobile's00:38:07
latest model the aeromobil 5.0 shows a00:38:09
car that drives to a helipad before it00:38:11
takes off vertically00:38:14
experts say engineering a hybrid car00:38:15
plane is really difficult because the00:38:17
two vehicles are designed for opposing00:38:19
goals00:38:20
when you design cars00:38:22
your objective is to fight friction with00:38:26
stark when you design airplanes your00:38:28
objective is to fight gravity with lift00:38:31
so this leads to two different kinds of00:38:33
solution00:38:34
sticking wings into a car doesn't make00:38:37
them good airplanes any more than00:38:38
sticking wheels onto airplanes in00:38:41
addition a hybrid air and road vehicle00:38:43
in the u.s would require certification00:38:44
from both the faa and the national00:38:46
highway traffic safety administration00:38:48
which can be hard to achieve00:38:50
that's why many companies have turns to00:38:51
vetoes00:38:53
the vertical flight society a trade00:38:55
association for the advancement of00:38:56
vertical flight has been tracking00:38:58
electric veto design since 2016.00:39:00
its website lists over 250 different00:39:03
designs for ev tolls00:39:05
one well-known company working with ev00:39:06
tools is uber the idea is that with the00:39:10
new technology that's been applied to00:39:11
cars that have made electric cars00:39:13
possible electric powertrains batteries00:39:15
electric motors we can make a new class00:39:16
of aircraft that can take off and land00:39:18
vertically like a helicopter but uses00:39:20
multiple different rotors instead of one00:39:22
large one that allows it to have kind of00:39:24
built-in inherent redundancies that00:39:26
actually make it both safer to operate00:39:28
and cheaper to operate at the same time00:39:30
uber is not building any of the vehicles00:39:32
itself instead the company is00:39:33
collaborating with established00:39:35
manufacturers including boeing and00:39:36
hyundai to bring uber's ride sharing00:39:38
platform to electric flying vehicles00:39:41
uber says it hopes to have its ev tolls00:39:43
up and running by 202300:39:45
another big name in the space is airbus00:39:47
the company is testing city airbus an00:39:49
all-electric four-seat remotely piloted00:39:51
flying taxi which has so far performed00:39:53
more than a hundred test flights toyota00:39:56
also recently invested 394 million00:39:58
dollars in electric air taxi startup00:40:00
joby aviation and porsche has announced00:40:03
that they are exploring creating a00:40:04
luxury electric flying vehicle with u.s00:40:06
plane maker boeing startups opener and00:40:08
kitty hawk have come up with their own00:40:10
versions of vtols both startups are00:40:12
backed by google co-founder larry page00:40:14
and promise a personal flying vehicle00:40:15
that doesn't require a pilot's license00:40:18
companies see an enormous opportunity00:40:21
here people are00:40:22
conscious about the environmental impact00:40:26
they are tired of congestion they want00:40:29
to travel faster quicker and they're00:40:32
more receptive to ride sharing00:40:34
even with all the buzz experts agree00:40:36
that there are many challenges that00:40:37
manufacturers must face before they can00:40:39
bring an urban air mobility vehicle to00:40:41
market in order to have longer distances00:40:43
and faster charging times to keep that00:40:45
utilization up we're going to need00:40:47
pretty significant improvements in power00:40:49
to weight of the battery another one00:40:50
that doesn't get a lot of attention but00:40:52
should00:40:53
is noise00:40:56
you don't want to fill the air with00:40:58
these whizzing buzzing high frequency00:41:00
vehicles the third one is privacy while00:41:03
many in the public might be comfortable00:41:05
with autonomous vehicles covered with00:41:07
sensors that could facially recognize00:41:09
pedestrians the thought of something00:41:11
being in the air at night flying around00:41:13
your home or in your neighborhood or00:41:15
you know between businesses may00:41:17
introduce a new genre of privacy00:41:21
and safety related nuances that that are00:41:24
yet to be explored and will ultimately00:41:26
go into the courts and the regulatory00:41:28
bodies00:41:29
then there's the question of safety and00:41:30
regulation airplane safety is00:41:33
two or three orders of magnitude more00:41:35
than car safety a car engine may not be00:41:38
reliable like my first car let me break00:41:41
down but it's safe because you can just00:41:43
you know pull over and wait for00:41:44
emergency medical services but not in00:41:47
airplanes if something goes wrong00:41:49
that's the end it's a life-threatening00:41:51
event not only for people inside but00:41:54
those on the ground even futurist elon00:41:56
musk seems to be hesitant about the idea00:41:58
of flying vehicles00:42:00
there is a challenge with flying cars in00:42:02
that they they'll be quite noisy00:42:04
uh the the wind force generator will be00:42:07
very high let's just say that if00:42:08
something's flying over your head00:42:10
through a whole bunch of flying cars00:42:11
going all over the place00:42:14
um that is not an exciting and00:42:16
anxiety-reducing00:42:18
uh situation00:42:20
you're thinking like did they service00:42:22
their hubcap or is it gonna00:42:24
come off and guillotine me it's a flying00:42:26
pass00:42:27
our dream is that this will help solve00:42:30
the worldwide transportation crisis00:42:33
where00:42:34
you know it's impossible to get from00:42:36
here to san francisco in rush hour00:42:38
traffic00:42:39
right now and the regulatory system is00:42:42
basically set up so this aircraft can't00:42:44
meet that need right now but it's not00:42:46
because of capabilities this aircraft is00:42:49
capable right now of actually flying you00:42:51
know to san francisco landing and00:42:53
recharging it coming back or even00:42:54
landing coming back based on the00:42:56
distances00:42:57
but the problem right now is the00:42:58
regulatory environment has not caught up00:43:01
with the capabilities of this type of00:43:02
aircraft because honestly this type of00:43:04
aircraft was just invented but00:43:06
regulation seems to be catching up i00:43:08
want to close with some thoughts on the00:43:10
next very very innovative piece of00:43:13
technology that we see emerging and00:43:15
that's urban air mobility00:43:18
as i mentioned00:43:19
these are aircraft that fill that that00:43:21
void from 30 miles to 300 miles between00:43:25
the small drones and the commercial00:43:26
aircraft we know today00:43:29
and probably the biggest question i get00:43:31
on this is is this real are they really00:43:34
happening00:43:35
yes this is more than just hype this is00:43:38
more than just promotional videos00:43:41
we have at least six aircraft00:43:44
well along in their type certification00:43:46
which is the first step in introducing00:43:49
the new aircraft into operation00:43:52
in 2019 the european union aviation00:43:54
safety agency released a special00:43:56
condition certification for veto00:43:57
aircraft00:43:59
the condition applies to vehicles with00:44:00
nine passengers or less and a max00:44:02
certified takeoff mass of 7000 pounds or00:44:05
less as for if flying cars will ever fill our00:44:07
skies right now that seems unlikely00:44:10
i don't imagine that this is ever going00:44:13
to happen where people actually00:44:14
accomplish this dream of of a flying car00:44:18
in every garage it was a kind of00:44:20
self-contained fantasy that00:44:23
wasn't going to be a reality for very00:44:26
many people it seems as if trying to00:44:28
design a dual purpose road car and00:44:31
flying car is just not economical and00:44:34
not the optimal technological solution00:44:37
so if you look out 10 20 20 30 years the00:44:40
future of transportation is a mesh of00:44:42
high-speed automated efficient00:44:44
electronic sustainable terrestrial00:44:46
transport and then working as a mesh00:44:49
with electronic automated urban air00:44:53
mobility for various applications00:44:55
[Music]00:45:02
the invention of flight has been one of00:45:04
the most profound technologies in00:45:06
history and for the past century it has00:45:08
functioned pretty much the same way but00:45:10
that could all change the advent of00:45:12
lithium-ion batteries and electric00:45:14
propulsion technologies is igniting a00:45:16
revolution in transportation everything00:45:18
from cars to trucks and buses are going00:45:20
electric but what about planes we call00:45:23
this the third revolution in aviation00:45:26
the first was the piston engine that00:45:27
enabled the wright brothers to fly their00:45:29
first flight the second was the jet00:45:31
engine which only really was applied to00:45:33
larger planes and we think the third00:45:35
revolution is electric propulsion00:45:37
[Music]00:45:44
co2 emissions and the environmental00:45:45
impact they pose has moved to the00:45:47
forefront of public attention and has00:45:49
been one of the driving forces in00:45:50
leading electric vehicle adoption the00:45:53
aviation industry is one of the fastest00:45:54
growing sources of greenhouse gas00:45:56
emissions and unlike cars aviation is00:45:58
often excluded from national climate00:46:00
plans because it operates across borders00:46:03
between flight and commercial shipping00:46:06
constitutes about five percent of our00:46:08
total co2 emission per year00:46:11
and these are some of the hardest co200:46:14
to decarbonize aircraft emissions are a00:46:17
real serious problem it's projected to00:46:19
be up to 2500:46:20
of the entire global carbon budget to00:46:22
stay below 1.5 degrees c00:46:25
according to a 2018 report on co200:46:27
emissions from commercial aviation there00:46:29
was a 32 increase in emissions over the00:46:31
five years leading up to the study and00:46:33
with the faa estimating the number of00:46:35
airline passengers in the u.s will00:46:36
surpass 1.28 billion by 2038 planes will00:46:40
be a big source of pollution for years00:46:42
to come jet fuel is also one of the00:46:43
biggest operating costs for airlines and00:46:46
electric motors have fewer parts to00:46:47
repair and maintain making them a more00:46:49
economical option as well when you look00:46:51
at a jet engine there's thousands of00:46:53
moving parts a turboprop has seven00:46:55
thousand to ten thousand moving parts00:46:57
and you have to every three thousand00:46:59
hours spend hundreds of thousands of00:47:00
dollars and a lot of time to overhaul00:47:03
them there's one moving part in an00:47:05
electric motor in a plane an electric00:47:07
propulsion system can reduce cost of00:47:10
ownership or cost of operation00:47:12
dramatically orders of magnitude 40 5000:47:15
60 70 percent but not only do you have00:47:17
lower maintenance costs but you also00:47:19
have lower costs in terms of actually00:47:21
providing the energy required to go from00:47:23
one location to another00:47:25
with so many benefits why is it we have00:47:27
yet to see the electric vehicle movement00:47:29
come to aerospace00:47:30
so the fundamental problem with electric00:47:31
aircraft has always been that a good00:47:34
lithium-ion battery cell has 1 40th of00:47:37
the energy content00:47:40
of the equivalent weight of jet fuel00:47:42
and so if you were to take00:47:44
an existing airplane and you take out00:47:46
all the fuel and you take out the00:47:48
engines and the fuel systems00:47:50
and replace those with only batteries00:47:53
then you would only fly one twentieth as00:47:55
far00:47:56
while the electrification of aviation00:47:58
has been slow to start the technology is00:48:00
starting to look more feasible so00:48:02
there's been a significant enough00:48:03
revolution and improvement in the00:48:05
performance of batteries which the00:48:07
automotive industry is really driving it00:48:09
is extremely promising that one of these00:48:12
battery technology can be scaled up for00:48:14
electric flight so the real question is00:48:16
is not when will we have electric00:48:18
airplanes it's it's when will the time00:48:20
come00:48:21
where we can have electric airplanes00:48:24
that fly far enough00:48:25
to then start replacing conventionally00:48:28
fueled air transport the first area to00:48:30
be serviced with electric aircraft will00:48:32
be short regional flights but battery00:48:34
electric flight is still in early00:48:35
development some of the planes that have00:48:37
flown have been demonstrated they're00:48:38
basically all battery they're just00:48:40
carrying their pilot and they don't they00:48:42
actually don't even have the weight to00:48:44
carry passengers right now but the00:48:46
batteries are going to improve pipistrel00:48:48
is one of the few all-electric plane00:48:50
manufacturers actually building and00:48:51
flying today because of limited range00:48:53
and capacity they're primarily used as00:48:55
trainer aircraft recently harbor air in00:48:58
vancouver canada partnered with magne-x00:49:00
to take its fleet of seaplanes all00:49:02
electric it just completed its first00:49:03
successful flight and is beginning the00:49:05
certification and approval process00:49:07
israeli startup aviation aircraft showed00:49:09
off its all-electric nine-seat aircraft00:49:11
in summer 2019 at the paris air show the00:49:14
company claims the plane will be capable00:49:15
of flying up to 650 miles and that00:49:17
customers have placed more than 15000:49:19
orders the startup hopes to begin00:49:21
testing in 2020. there's companies out00:49:24
there like buy aerospace and pippistrol00:49:26
that are doing i think amazing things in00:49:28
the light sport and the trainer aircraft00:49:30
market where they could go straight to00:49:32
electric with those vehicles and the00:49:34
cost of ownership and the operational00:49:36
cost benefits are really really00:49:38
compelling00:49:39
until battery tech improves hybrid00:49:41
electric aircraft is what will be00:49:42
utilized for larger capacity flights00:49:44
going longer distances00:49:46
a hybrid electric aircraft would be an00:49:47
aircraft that would leverage electric00:49:49
motor and electric propulsion in00:49:51
addition to the traditional fuel sources00:49:53
that we have today so one can imagine00:49:55
just like you would have a hybrid00:49:57
electric car you could have a hybrid00:49:58
electric aircraft so what we've done is00:50:01
we've taken a very very successful00:50:02
honeywell helicopter engine and we've00:50:05
mounted it with a special gearbox to two00:50:07
of our ultra efficient generators so in00:50:10
total this machine00:50:12
generates 400 kilowatts of power which00:50:14
is enough to power 40 homes at one time00:50:18
ampere is one startup working on and00:50:20
testing hybrid electric aircraft00:50:22
the first plane that ampere flew is our00:50:24
electric eel and that's a six-seat00:50:26
aircraft the largest hybrid electric00:50:28
aircraft that's ever flown we're already00:50:31
building our second copy of that00:50:32
aircraft and it's going to be the first00:50:34
ever to fly on an actual commercial00:50:36
route demoing daily operations in hawaii00:50:39
the test flights will begin next year in00:50:41
partnership with mokulele airlines00:50:43
flying on a route base out of maui this00:50:45
project is a stepping stone for00:50:47
worldwide adoption of electric aircraft00:50:50
so we've been working in programs from00:50:52
everywhere like norway where norway is00:50:54
actually aiming to have all flights00:50:56
under 90 minutes go00:50:58
electric or hybrid electric by 204000:51:01
and looking at the uk is scotland00:51:04
initiatives going on right now to have00:51:06
electric and hybrid electric aircraft00:51:08
airlines historically have struggled to00:51:09
make money on shorter regional flights00:51:11
but hybrid planes could change that in a00:51:13
hybrid we're reducing fuel burn by up to00:51:16
75 percent that is transformational for00:51:19
the economics of airlines there's this00:51:20
whole segment of the market about 4000:51:23
billion dollars of revenue that has now00:51:26
been eliminated from airlines balance00:51:28
sheets because they just couldn't fly00:51:30
those routes profitably we're going to00:51:31
enable them to fly those routes again00:51:34
utilizing hybrid engines in regional00:51:35
aircraft could also make flight more00:51:37
common in daily life i think everybody00:51:39
knows how expensive it is to fly00:51:41
regionally00:51:42
and part of the reason that this is the00:51:44
case00:51:45
is that small turbine engines00:51:48
are very inefficient electricity from00:51:51
renewable sources can be very cheap and00:51:53
in parts of the country it's00:51:54
ridiculously cheap like the pacific00:51:56
northwest compared to jet fuel00:51:58
flying will be uh will be a bargain it's00:52:01
also going to enable is things like00:52:03
regional commuting that you have these00:52:05
super commuters in places like los00:52:07
angeles and the bay area that are going00:52:08
to be able to do things like fly daily00:52:11
air pooling00:52:12
so when could we see larger commercial00:52:14
airliners go electric it could be some00:52:17
time00:52:18
i think there's a lot of years if not00:52:20
decades before hybrid electric and fully00:52:23
electric propulsion is going to be00:52:25
viable in that space and it's unknown00:52:27
when battery technology will be00:52:29
sufficient for those longer missions in00:52:32
the takeoff00:52:33
the amount of power that is required is00:52:36
specifically related to its weight00:52:38
even to have a small00:52:41
passenger plane maybe three or four00:52:43
people go for several hundred miles you00:52:46
need a battery that is two to three00:52:48
times more powerful than it is today00:52:51
it's more likely that these larger00:52:52
aircraft will convert to hybrid00:52:53
technology until batteries are capable00:52:55
of supporting longer flights when you00:52:57
talk to a boeing or you talk to it to an00:52:59
airbus about a really big airplane the00:53:02
conversations in the present tend to be00:53:04
around how do you make the airplane more00:53:07
electric versus fully electric and that00:53:10
does take loads off of the engines and00:53:13
help reduce the fuel burn of those00:53:15
aircraft and make those aircraft more00:53:16
efficient electric technology also opens00:53:18
up a host of new efficient designs for00:53:20
future aircraft00:53:22
there's kind of a cascade of benefits00:53:23
you produce less heat so it's easier to00:53:25
cool your system and your cooling drag00:53:28
goes down you can design the plane00:53:30
differently the electric motors are tiny00:53:32
compared to an engine you can put them00:53:33
in different places so it just opens up00:53:35
an entire new design space if you00:53:37
compare the amount of energy per weight00:53:39
that you could put in a battery versus00:53:41
amount of energy per weight that's in a00:53:43
gallon of gasoline it's like it's00:53:46
enormously different and what that00:53:48
forces you to do is to design very very00:53:50
efficient airplanes00:53:51
these efficiencies in combination with00:53:53
the advantages of electric propulsion00:53:55
enable an entirely new type of flight00:53:57
air taxis or urban air mobility urban00:54:00
air mobility is really a new mode of00:54:02
transportation i would actually call it00:54:04
a new era in aviation and that00:54:06
revolution is really to overcome the00:54:08
traffic problem we're seeing around big00:54:10
cities perhaps you're 30 miles away from00:54:13
your closest airport so you could00:54:14
potentially get into one of these urban00:54:16
air mobility vehicles and fly that short00:54:18
distance00:54:19
that might take you an hour in traffic00:54:21
but maybe 15 minutes in one of these00:54:23
urban air mobility vehicles00:54:25
this new segment of transportation has00:54:27
attracted the attention of uber which is00:54:28
hoping to bring its experience as a ride00:54:30
share company to flight00:54:32
we know that congestion is getting worse00:54:34
and there's limits to what you can do on00:54:35
the ground let's move transportation out00:54:37
of the 2d grid into the third dimension00:54:40
uber is creating the technology that00:54:42
will help run the logistical operations00:54:44
of such a service and partnering with00:54:45
manufacturers to provide the aircraft00:54:47
when you select uber air we'll get you a00:54:49
car you'll take that to the skyport will00:54:51
walk you through the seamless minimal00:54:53
time transition into the aircraft which00:54:55
will then take off fly to the closest00:54:57
remote sky port to your destination00:54:59
where a car will meet you just in time00:55:01
for you to get to your final destination00:55:03
urban air mobility could surpass00:55:05
ground-based services in investor00:55:06
interest and funding morgan stanley00:55:08
estimates the market could reach 1.500:55:10
trillion by 2040. the evolution has been00:55:13
like nothing i've ever seen i've been in00:55:15
aerospace for decades and there's been00:55:18
an influx of capital at each end of the00:55:20
value chain from the vehicle00:55:22
manufacturers to the technology to the00:55:25
infrastructure to the regulatory00:55:27
environment00:55:28
hundreds of startups have recently00:55:29
entered the space all working to develop00:55:31
their own aircraft fahana is developing00:55:33
a short-range vertical take-off and00:55:34
landing vehicle funded by airbus joby00:55:37
aviation is backed by jetblue airways00:55:39
and google's larry page is an investor00:55:41
in two startups as well00:55:43
traditionally only a few hundred planes00:55:44
are manufactured a year the advent of00:55:46
urban air mobility could change that and00:55:48
have a big impact on the automotive00:55:49
industry00:55:51
the volumes are going to be like nothing00:55:52
we've ever seen in a traditional00:55:54
aerospace market00:55:56
500 airplanes a year 600 airplanes a00:55:59
year those are record-setting right00:56:01
numbers of airplanes and for urban air00:56:03
mobility could be tens of thousands of00:56:05
vehicles per year and quite frankly the00:56:08
traditional airspace industry isn't00:56:10
equipped to support those volumes00:56:12
anticipating this convergence of00:56:14
aerospace and automotive led honeywell00:56:15
to partner with denzo one of the world's00:56:17
largest automotive suppliers00:56:19
we talk about urban air mobility not as00:56:21
a replacement for an airplane but as a00:56:23
replacement for a car and so you have a00:56:25
lot of automotive companies that are00:56:26
very very interested in participating in00:56:28
the market we build millions of motors00:56:31
and inverters and when we bring that00:56:34
kind of technology and manufacturing00:56:35
know-how to our aerospace customers it's00:56:38
seen as really really monumental because00:56:41
they are used to building in such low00:56:43
quantities00:56:44
air taxis are only just starting to00:56:46
enter testing but how soon could we00:56:48
potentially see them out in the world00:56:50
we do see00:56:52
some urban air mobility operations using00:56:55
conventional helicopters today but when00:56:57
are we going to actually see these00:56:58
electric vertical takeoff and landing00:57:00
vehicles my best guess would be as the00:57:03
technology develops it'll be most likely00:57:05
in the 20 35 20 20 30 plus time frame00:57:08
we've said publicly that we think that00:57:10
2023 is an achievable date for launch of00:57:13
a real commercial service it'll be a00:57:14
handful of vehicles starting out on key00:57:16
routes00:57:17
it's going to start you know at a price00:57:19
point that's a little bit more premium00:57:22
but before air taxis or fully electric00:57:23
planes can be a reality batteries still00:57:26
need to improve00:57:27
if we want a small air taxi to fly for00:57:30
say 500 miles that will require a00:57:33
battery00:57:34
that has more than double00:57:36
the energy density of today's electric00:57:39
vehicle batteries00:57:40
another roadblock is ensuring it will be00:57:42
safe and reliable under heavy use there00:57:44
are 200 00000:57:46
planes00:57:47
taking off and landing every day so the00:57:51
reliability of a battery power plane has00:57:53
to be very high00:57:55
as the technology improves they'll be00:57:56
entering an industry built around heavy00:57:58
regulation aircraft manufacturing and00:58:00
systems are required to undergo intense00:58:02
certification to ensure reliability and00:58:04
safety00:58:05
this is no longer you know dad's little00:58:08
cessna 172 this is a vehicle that needs00:58:11
that reliability and that safety to move00:58:13
people who are expecting that same00:58:15
experience that they would get in a 73700:58:18
in a small vehicle00:58:20
not to mention the logistical obstacles00:58:22
of navigating the crowded airspace as00:58:24
more flight technologies come to market00:58:25
there will be more aircraft in the skies00:58:27
than ever before00:58:28
think about hundreds or even thousands00:58:30
of these vehicles flying around they00:58:32
have to stay away from all the other00:58:34
traffic that's flying in the space00:58:36
so not only will we have to ensure safe00:58:38
operations for the passengers on board00:58:40
but also for off nominal cases ensuring00:58:43
for the safety of the folks that are on00:58:45
the ground and with urban air mobility00:58:47
emerging as a new field in aviation a00:58:49
whole new set of research questions and00:58:51
processes need to be developed between00:58:52
the faa and vehicle partners to address00:58:55
these challenges nasa has created the00:58:56
grand challenge00:58:58
the grand challenge is focused on00:59:00
providing an ecosystem or a proving00:59:02
ground to enable not only nasa but also00:59:05
the faa vehicle industry partners and00:59:08
airspace industry partners to come00:59:10
together to really understand the key00:59:12
questions of what will be required to00:59:14
enable urban air mobility operations the00:59:18
hope is that together they can outline00:59:19
safety certifications regulation and00:59:21
integration into the national airspace00:59:23
and urban environments00:59:25
seeing an electric plane00:59:28
as a prototype00:59:29
is quite far from a mass-produced one00:59:32
unless there is a significant policy00:59:35
shift to put for example a cost on00:59:38
carbon emission00:59:40
battery based planes will have to00:59:41
compete also with jet fuel based planes00:59:44
and currently the economics do not work00:59:48
as planes progress toward electric00:59:49
technology we should expect it to follow00:59:51
a very similar path to what we saw in00:59:53
the automobile industry00:59:54
were you at one point were talking about00:59:56
small vehicles like a nissan leaf now00:59:59
you're talking about electrifying entire01:00:00
buses and i think in aerospace or in01:00:03
flying vehicles we're going to see01:00:05
sort of a similar evolution01:00:07
you know they stay in service for 3001:00:09
years the aircraft that need to be01:00:11
flying 30 years from now you need to be01:00:13
in development today01:00:15
i think that we will start seeing01:00:16
regional electric aircraft happen and01:00:19
i think that will certainly be in the01:00:20
next 15 years01:00:22
every type of transport is going01:00:24
electric01:00:25
has already gone electric and i planes01:00:28
are next and it's not just some far out01:00:30
future it's happening right now01:00:34
[Music]01:00:51
youDescription:
From high-speed rails to electric planes, why is the U.S. so behind on transportation? Watch the video to learn why it's so difficult to innovate transportation. 00:00 -- Intro 00:47 -- Why The U.S. Has No High-Speed Rail? 16:53 -- Why Don’t We Have Self-Driving Cars Yet? 29:27 -- Why Don’t We Have Flying Cars Yet? 44:57 -- Why Don’t We Have Electric Planes Yet? » Subscribe to CNBC: https://www.youtube.com/user/cnbc?sub_confirmation=1 » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://www.youtube.com/cnbctelevision?sub_confirmation=1 » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://www.youtube.com/cnbcclassic?sub_confirmation=1 About CNBC: From 'Wall Street' to 'Main Street' to award winning original documentaries and Reality TV series, CNBC has you covered. Experience special sneak peeks of your favorite shows, exclusive video and more. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cnbc Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Follow CNBC News on Twitter: http://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser #CNBC
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