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00:00:07
I am Zhao Shaokang, welcome to TVBS Shaokang's War Room.00:00:09
Our special guests are00:00:10
Representative Li Yuxiang, Ms. Lan Xuan , Committee00:00:14
Member Wang Hongwei, Committee Member Chen Jinghui,00:00:17
and Mr. Tang Xianglong.00:00:18
Hello, the Honduran election lasted00:00:22
a month, with00:00:23
the vote count going on for a month.00:00:26
Actually, after the vote count,00:00:28
Trump kept warning00:00:29
me not to cheat.00:00:32
Now, the candidate with the second-highest number of votes,00:00:35
because Trump supported the candidate with the most votes00:00:37
,00:00:39
refused to concede, saying there was cheating. If00:00:41
there was no cheating, why would it take a month00:00:43
? You say they rigged the votes. The Honduran candidate00:00:45
supported by Trump00:00:46
won00:00:49
by a narrow margin. Look at00:00:51
the difference yourself: 40.27%00:00:54
, not that many votes.00:00:55
A total of 1,479,822 votes00:00:58
, not a hundred million votes.00:01:02
The second-highest00:01:04
was 39.54%. I think it's only a difference of 3.7...00:01:09
0.73 It's only 0.73% difference00:01:13
between 1.479 million and 1.454 million,00:01:16
just a tiny bit more00:01:17
, so they're not convinced.00:01:21
What happened?00:01:22
The Speaker of Congress00:01:23
, because he used to be in power00:01:24
(though now the ruling party has changed),00:01:26
refuses to acknowledge it, calling it an election coup.00:01:29
Trump00:01:30
used the election to change things.00:01:33
US Secretary of State Rubio00:01:34
told all parties to respect the results.00:01:36
The election is what it is,00:01:37
even a single vote makes a difference, so why won't they acknowledge it?00:01:41
This Asfula00:01:43
, supported by Trump, is00:01:44
essentially a right-winger.00:01:46
He praised that00:01:48
when they had diplomatic relations with Taiwan,00:01:49
it was a hundred times better00:01:53
than now with mainland China,00:01:55
mentioning things like red shrimp, and a whole bunch of other things00:01:57
, but mainland China didn't buy them.00:01:58
Then, Paraguay said00:02:02
its 68-year diplomatic relationship with Taiwan was also loosening.00:02:04
Foreign media warned that00:02:06
if Paraguay were to align itself with a pro-China party,00:02:10
it might follow in Honduras' footsteps00:02:13
and the outcome could be bad.00:02:15
Venezuela00:02:16
's oil tanker was seized by the US00:02:18
under the pretext of drug trafficking,00:02:21
killing people, and seizing the tanker,00:02:23
so now the oil can't be00:02:25
sold and there's a large inventory increase.00:02:27
They say the US is extorting them00:02:29
and wants their oil in this way.00:02:31
Brazil and other countries have so many problems00:02:34
. Brazil warned the US00:02:36
that its military action against Venezuela00:02:38
violates international law00:02:39
and that Trump is interfering in their election,00:02:42
so Brazil's president is00:02:45
also against Trump. Former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Susan Thornton, said that00:02:48
Trump and Xi00:02:50
will meet four times next year.00:02:52
Trump will meet with Xi once during his visit to mainland China,00:02:55
once during Xi's return visit00:02:56
, and twice more00:02:58
at various international events.00:03:00
She said the four meetings will help00:03:04
manage the negative situation.00:03:08
CNN reported that this year00:03:11
is almost Christmas,00:03:12
and only00:03:13
a week of the year is left.00:03:14
Next year, 2026, there are seven major global events.00:03:18
What are they?00:03:19
The Venezuelan standoff, as just mentioned00:03:21
. So the US is creating00:03:22
a Trump version of the Monroe Doctrine00:03:23
, which is...00:03:25
This US only cares about the Americas .00:03:27
The fifth year of the Russia-Ukraine war00:03:29
, the key is in Washington, not on the front lines.00:03:31
The real key is in Washington.00:03:34
Trump may decide Taiwan's fate00:03:36
because of the Trump-Xi meeting00:03:39
. With00:03:40
Taiwan not at the negotiating table00:03:41
, it's our fate that others decide.00:03:43
Israel's military victory has led to00:03:45
an unclear political direction.00:03:47
Israel won, but00:03:48
what is the current situation?00:03:49
Iran faces internal and external pressures simultaneously;00:03:51
terrorism will resurge.00:03:54
Then the AI revolution00:03:56
will become an arena for great power competition,00:03:59
with small countries sidelined. Let's see...00:04:03
cheering and applauding!00:04:05
The Honduran presidential election00:04:07
results are finally in.00:04:09
The National Electoral Commission00:04:11
announced00:04:13
that Asfra00:04:14
was elected. The Honduran00:04:16
Constitution stipulates that the president00:04:21
is a conservative candidate... Hondura's candidate, Asfra,00:04:23
won the presidency00:04:25
with 40.26% of the vote,00:04:27
a margin of less than 30,000 votes.00:04:30
He posted on social media that00:04:31
he was ready to govern and00:04:33
would not disappoint.00:04:35
Asfra , 67,00:04:38
a member of the Honduras National Party,00:04:40
is a former engineer, businessman00:04:41
, and mayor of the capital,00:04:43
focusing on economic investment.00:04:44
Before the election, he supported restoring diplomatic relations with Taiwan00:04:47
and was also00:04:49
a candidate strongly endorsed by00:04:52
US President Trump . US Secretary of State Rubio00:04:54
congratulated him00:04:55
and expressed his anticipation of working with Asfra's government00:04:57
to promote prosperity and security in the Western Hemisphere.00:05:05
However, some protested00:05:07
, holding signs against US interference.00:05:09
The losing pro-China ruling party00:05:11
... The previous allegations of an election coup00:05:12
stemmed from allegations of fraud during the November 30th election,00:05:15
which led00:05:17
to a recount00:05:18
that took almost a month to confirm the results.00:05:21
The 3 million voters didn't care00:05:23
whether Naslaya won00:05:25
or Asfra was formally inaugurated00:05:27
; both were right-wing,00:05:29
and we voted for the right-wing,00:05:31
pro-US, and pro-Taiwan. Whether Honduras00:05:34
would truly restore diplomatic relations with China00:05:37
is a matter of00:05:39
US-China-Taiwan power struggle.00:05:41
Of course, most of Taiwan's00:05:43
focus will be on00:05:44
whether Honduras00:05:46
would sever ties with Beijing and00:05:49
restore relations00:05:50
with Taiwan after00:05:52
a very right-wing candidate00:05:54
supporting Trump00:05:56
is elected as the new president. The simplest logic00:05:59
seems logical, but it won't work00:06:02
unless the US agrees00:06:04
. For the US,00:06:07
the most important thing right now is the US-China relationship.00:06:09
Honduras's fate00:06:11
is just00:06:13
a small pawn00:06:15
in00:06:16
its manipulation of the Monroe Doctrine. In fact,00:06:19
all the new US strategic contraction in the coming period00:06:22
, and for the Americas, it's not the Monroe Doctrine itself00:06:26
, but a packaged form of00:06:28
hegemony and bullying.00:06:31
For all Central and South American countries,00:06:33
they will live under the US's00:06:35
powerful military and intimidation tactics00:06:37
for a long time.00:06:39
The US will use its fists00:06:41
to threaten and subvert your country,00:06:43
forcing you00:06:44
to elect a regime00:06:45
with the same political stance00:06:47
as its own. Therefore, the00:06:49
US intervenes in every00:06:50
election. Honduras00:06:53
is just the most recent one00:06:56
. From October to now, and00:06:58
now at the end of December00:06:59
, all three elections in the Americas00:07:01
this year have shifted to the right00:07:04
. Of course, even more influential than Honduras00:07:07
is Chile.00:07:08
Chile also elected a far-right figure00:07:11
who calls himself "Chilean Trump."00:07:14
After his election, he quickly visited Buenos Aires and00:07:18
met with Mireille, acting like brothers.00:07:20
They00:07:21
were basically strangers before.00:07:24
Therefore, after Trump's election,00:07:26
he worked hard to00:07:28
equate Latin America00:07:30
and the Americas with the US.00:07:32
Whether it's called Latin America00:07:35
or the United States of America,00:07:37
it's all about America,00:07:39
the Americas00:07:41
, and equating America with the United States00:07:43
. Trump isn't just telling you00:07:45
that Greenland is mine,00:07:48
Canada is my 51st state,00:07:50
the Panama Canal is mine, and00:07:52
all of Venezuela's oil00:07:53
should be mine;00:07:55
when are you going to hand it over? What00:07:57
I just mentioned is that all three elections this year have00:08:00
turned to the right,00:08:01
including Argentina's00:08:03
midterm elections.00:08:06
This time, Honduras00:08:08
' election is smaller in scale00:08:10
, but it may have set the stage for00:08:12
what's truly important00:08:14
for Latin America next00:08:15
year. Next year will be crucial for whether left-wing governments in Latin America00:08:18
will be wiped out,00:08:20
because there are several very important00:08:22
elections for left-wing governments00:08:25
next year.00:08:26
One is00:08:27
Brazil 's Lula.00:08:30
If Lula loses00:08:31
next year's election , it won't just be00:08:34
a question of whether a country is left or right00:08:35
; Brazil00:08:36
is a core member of BRICS.00:08:40
If Brazil turns to the right,00:08:42
it may end up like Argentina. If00:08:44
Argentina's Mireille is elected00:08:46
, all the00:08:48
things BRICS and Argentina discussed in the past00:08:50
will be null and void.00:08:51
Argentina will then become estranged from BRICS00:08:54
. After all, Brazil... after00:08:56
all, we're talking about BRICS today...00:08:58
The "B" in BRICS stands for Brazil.00:09:01
If that "B" disappears,00:09:03
there will be many more variables in the BRICS landscape.00:09:06
Also, Colombia is00:09:08
good. So the US will try its best00:09:10
to manipulate elections00:09:12
; if it can,00:09:13
it will manipulate them,00:09:14
and if it can't, it will use its fists to punish them.00:09:16
But why00:09:17
Honduras establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan isn't important.00:09:20
You need to know that in Honduras00:09:21
, the president's term is only four years.00:09:24
After this election, who will be elected next is00:09:26
uncertain.00:09:27
Should Taiwan, like in the past,00:09:29
engage in "spare -food diplomacy" ?00:09:30
Whoever is elected this time00:09:31
is closer to us,00:09:32
so we'll pull them over00:09:33
. If they disagree with us next time00:09:35
, we'll switch sides00:09:37
. If Taiwan wants to do this,00:09:39
I have no objection, because Lai Ching-te00:09:40
is now picking up every opportunity00:09:42
. I've been paying attention to this for a long time.00:09:44
I said that because of Trump's deep involvement00:09:45
in this election00:09:47
, even if his opponents resist, it won't matter.00:09:51
But I think today Trump00:09:53
won't let Latin American countries00:09:55
think that if a right-wing regime00:09:57
is elected,00:09:58
it can00:10:01
do whatever it wants,00:10:03
or that a00:10:04
right-wing regime like Honduras00:10:05
will be very close to Taiwan00:10:07
, or that Paraguay00:10:09
will always be close to Taiwan. Standing together00:10:10
is not00:10:11
within the larger political framework.00:10:13
The positions of the US and China determine everything.00:10:15
Now even Taiwan and Japan00:10:17
are stuck in this situation, unable to move,00:10:19
let alone Honduras.00:10:20
Lan Xuan00:10:21
thinks that everyone00:10:22
is talking about the Monroe Doctrine00:10:23
when they see Central and South America.00:10:24
But I think the Monroe Doctrine00:10:25
said that00:10:26
the Americas belong to the Americans.00:10:28
So it sounds00:10:29
like00:10:30
the US cares most about its backyard00:10:31
and Central and South America.00:10:33
In fact, Trump has been particularly concerned00:10:34
about this recently.00:10:35
Looking at these countries,00:10:37
this is indeed the case for some.00:10:38
From the beginning, Panama00:10:39
—don't forget00:10:40
the Panama Canal—00:10:41
even00:10:42
if he doesn't run for election00:10:43
,00:10:44
as long as Panama gets too close to China,00:10:46
the US will think, "00:10:47
I want to nationalize it,00:10:48
I want to take it back.00:10:49
" He says the Panama Canal belongs to the US.00:10:51
Then there's what Xiang Long mentioned00:10:52
earlier, including Argentina, Honduras,00:10:54
and00:10:56
Venezuela,00:10:57
which is currently in conflict.00:10:59
But what I mean is,00:11:00
it's not just the Americas00:11:01
that are currently in00:11:02
this situation . For Trump,00:11:04
anything that doesn't align with American interests,00:11:05
especially China,00:11:08
seems to be00:11:09
a target of his recent00:11:12
intentions.00:11:13
This is particularly true00:11:16
given the apparent rise00:11:18
in power between China and Russia,00:11:20
a situation00:11:21
where China's rise00:11:22
corresponds to00:11:24
the decline00:11:25
of the US00:11:26
. So, we're not just seeing this in countries00:11:28
with so-called right-wing00:11:29
and left-wing elections.00:11:31
Honduras has made it clear00:11:32
that even now, the00:11:33
criticisms they're facing —00:11:34
the questioning of vote rigging00:11:35
and US assistance—00:11:37
are valid,00:11:39
though00:11:40
they lack evidence00:11:42
. Initially, the vice president,00:11:44
now in second place,00:11:46
was leading00:11:47
Asif,00:11:49
but as the vote count progressed00:11:51
over a month,00:11:52
the second-place candidate's lead00:11:53
increased while the first-place candidate's decreased.00:11:56
Eventually, the first-place candidate crossed the line00:11:58
, and Trump accused00:11:59
him00:12:00
of vote rigging00:12:02
and fraud. If you're relying on others to rig the vote,00:12:03
then if you win,00:12:04
you're not rigging the vote.00:12:05
So I find this very strange.00:12:07
Why has the vote count been going on for a month00:12:08
, and the margin of victory00:12:10
has been around 1%00:12:11
? Initially, the former vice president00:12:14
was leading the current mayor by 1%00:12:16
. Now, after a month, it's slowly...00:12:18
become Trump's preferred00:12:20
candidate leading by 1%.00:12:21
You say Venezuela00:12:23
isn't part of Honduras,00:12:24
so why wouldn't people question00:12:26
Trump's involvement?00:12:27
Especially since their former president00:12:29
is accused of drug trafficking and00:12:31
is imprisoned in the US, yet00:12:32
he's suddenly released.00:12:33
If your involvement with Venezuela00:12:35
is because of him...00:12:37
because of his drug trafficking connections00:12:39
, Maduro is00:12:42
linked to drug traffickers; he's a major drug lord.00:12:44
So why suddenly release00:12:46
Yernandez?00:12:48
On one hand, you've released a major drug lord,00:12:49
and on the other hand, you're saying you're going to arrest another major drug lord.00:12:51
Both are00:12:52
very large countries00:12:53
in Central and South America. So I think Trump's standards00:12:55
are basically inconsistent.00:12:57
As long as it's in the US's interest,00:12:58
he thinks he should influence it,00:13:00
he should overthrow it.00:13:01
So, I think00:13:03
that Venezuela00:13:05
and Honduras are just two examples,00:13:07
including Greenland00:13:08
and the current large-scale troop buildup in the Caribbean00:13:12
. I feel that international law00:13:14
is meaningless to Trump now.00:13:16
Look at Russia and China00:13:18
at the UN a few days ago00:13:20
, praising Venezuela and saying, "00:13:22
How could you do this?00:13:23
It00:13:24
's practically an act of war!"00:13:26
But think about00:13:27
it:00:13:28
when the US accused China and Russia00:13:31
of being00:13:33
dictatorships in the UN Security Council, it was useless00:13:35
. So, conversely,00:13:36
when China and Russia argued in the UN00:13:37
that the US is acting00:13:39
like a bully ,00:13:40
it's also00:13:41
useless00:13:42
. Basically, I think the tables have turned.00:13:45
The bullies00:13:46
and dictators of the past,00:13:48
like China and Russia, are now00:13:49
almost entirely represented by the US. The US is more00:13:51
domineering than anyone else.00:13:52
Today, whatever it wants—00:13:53
its oil, its canals,00:13:55
its regime—it will take it.00:13:58
So,00:13:59
I think Trump's00:14:00
so-called Monroe Doctrine underestimates him.00:14:02
He's not just looking at00:14:04
Latin America; he's targeting00:14:05
almost the entire world.00:14:06
Anyone whose interests conflict with his,00:14:08
anyone whose power and influence China seems00:14:09
stronger and more influential,00:14:12
he wants to overthrow.00:14:13
That's very bad.00:14:14
The strong bully the weak, the many oppress the few. Yes, and00:14:16
others… The country might think,00:14:17
"You can do this, but I can't."00:14:20
In fact, Trump has already intervened.00:14:21
Whether he intervened or not,00:14:22
whether there was fraud, we don't know00:14:23
, but of course he intervened.00:14:25
I00:14:26
support him. Only by supporting him will the US continue to provide aid to you in the future.00:14:28
If you support him, I won't care about you in the future.00:14:30
He's also a drug lord...00:14:31
He's my drug lord,00:14:33
he's not my drug lord.00:14:34
The difference is here .00:14:35
Let's take a break and come back.00:14:49
Okay, the US has a latest00:14:50
report on Chinese military power00:14:52
saying that by 2027, the CCP00:14:55
will have a strategic advantage00:14:57
over Taiwan , and the PLA will00:14:59
pose a direct security threat to the US.00:15:01
Previously, it was the US threatening others;00:15:03
how can you pose a threat to the US? The CCP00:15:05
will gradually develop such strength. Furthermore00:15:09
, by 2049,00:15:12
China's goal is to build00:15:14
a world-class military00:15:15
, making the security of the US homeland00:15:17
increasingly vulnerable.00:15:18
Not only overseas,00:15:19
but the homeland itself could be threatened.00:15:22
This is because in September00:15:27
2024, the CCP00:15:28
test-fired a missile into the Pacific Ocean for the first time,00:15:30
flying 11,000 kilometers00:15:33
... From Beijing to New York is00:15:37
only 10,991 kilometers00:15:39
, so 11,000 kilometers00:15:40
is more than that,00:15:41
exceeding 9 kilometers.00:15:43
Therefore, under these circumstances,00:15:44
they can launch missiles00:15:46
, and why00:15:47
wouldn't they launch from Beijing ? They could launch from Fujian00:15:48
or other places...00:15:51
Anyway, from somewhere relatively close to the US,00:15:52
is that possible?00:15:54
In other words, it's possible... They00:15:56
've even reached00:15:57
New York, and Washington too.00:16:00
Furthermore, the Ministry of National Defense's annual report states that00:16:02
China might use four military means00:16:05
to force Taiwan's unification00:16:06
:00:16:08
First, a less serious form of coercion than war , such as00:16:11
electronic warfare00:16:12
or inducing social panic;00:16:13
second, joint firepower strikes against00:16:16
air force bases, radar stations00:16:18
, missiles, and communication facilities;00:16:20
third, a joint blockade00:16:22
—everyone knows about00:16:23
blockades of the sea, etc.;00:16:25
and the most terrifying is a joint amphibious landing,00:16:26
which would come at a great cost00:16:28
, but this00:16:30
might be used00:16:31
as a final, crucial action.00:16:33
So they say there are four methods.00:16:35
The Pentagon says00:16:38
China will test multiple scenarios00:16:41
, even using brute force.00:16:43
If Taiwan doesn't obey,00:16:44
they'll forcefully swallow it up.00:16:46
And then... China may soon00:16:48
have 1,000 nuclear warheads.00:16:51
The original estimate was over 50000:16:53
, but it's projected00:16:54
to have 1,000 within five years, by 2030.00:16:56
As mentioned earlier,00:16:58
China has intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching such a long range00:17:01
. Furthermore00:17:02
, if another country00:17:04
launches00:17:06
a missile,00:17:08
China can detect it within00:17:09
90 seconds00:17:10
, even before the missile reaches its target.00:17:11
China00:17:12
also has the capability to retaliate00:17:14
. Currently, China has three missile launch sites00:17:17
with over 100 missile silos00:17:18
. These three sites00:17:20
are located in00:17:24
Hami00:17:26
, Xinjiang;00:17:29
Yumen, Gansu00:17:31
; and00:17:34
Guangxi00:17:35
Zhuang Autonomous Region00:17:37
. Everywhere00:17:39
there are densely packed missile silos launching00:17:41
missiles . Let's look at00:17:43
the Pentagon's00:17:45
2025 report on Chinese military power00:17:47
submitted to Congress . It points out that China is pursuing00:17:50
a supreme military strategy of defeating the United States00:17:52
through total war,00:17:54
and that the Chinese military is undergoing00:17:56
a historic military expansion00:17:58
, making the US homeland increasingly vulnerable.00:18:00
As of 2024,00:18:02
China's nuclear warhead stockpile00:18:03
remained at just over 600, but00:18:05
it is projected00:18:06
to exceed 1,000 by 2030.00:18:08
Furthermore, progress has been made00:18:11
in developing nuclear early warning and counter-attack00:18:13
capabilities00:18:14
, which may continue to be strengthened in the coming years.00:18:15
While China consistently reiterates00:18:17
its no-first-use nuclear policy, it00:18:20
also attempts to00:18:22
deter non-nuclear military actions00:18:24
with its nuclear force.00:18:26
This will make...00:18:27
The report suggests that00:18:29
communication regarding the role of nuclear weapons00:18:30
in a Taiwan Strait conflict would be more complex,00:18:33
increasing the risk of miscalculation00:18:35
. President Trump00:18:36
and his administration sought00:18:37
a stable, peaceful, fair deal and a respectful relationship00:18:39
with China. The report mentions that Beijing expects00:18:40
to possess the capability to wage war against Taiwan00:18:42
and achieve victory by the end of 2027 , continuously refining various00:18:44
military options for the forceful reunification of Taiwan.00:18:47
Over the past year,00:18:48
the PLA has tested key elements of these options00:18:50
through multiple military operations,00:18:53
including blockading key ports00:18:55
, striking maritime and land targets , and00:18:56
conducting exercises to00:18:57
counter potential US military intervention. Four military options00:19:00
that Chinese leaders may consider00:19:02
against Taiwan00:19:03
include the most risky00:19:05
amphibious landing and00:19:06
intrusion strike operations.00:19:08
Possible maritime blockades00:19:09
or coercive actions00:19:11
that do not reach the threshold of war,00:19:12
among which amphibious landings00:19:13
must achieve and maintain00:19:15
air and sea supremacy, and00:19:17
rapidly maintain troop concentration and continuous resupply00:19:19
are00:19:20
the most complex and difficult military operations for the People's Liberation Army00:19:23
. The report points out that Beijing's goal00:19:24
is not limited to preventing Taiwan from declaring independence00:19:27
, but to coerce Taipei00:19:29
towards unification under conditions set by Beijing00:19:32
through00:19:33
threats and inducements. This is00:19:35
the first report on China's military power issued by00:19:37
Trump since his second term.00:19:40
In this report,00:19:42
some parts are relatively old00:19:44
and some are relatively new00:19:46
. In fact, the old parts are00:19:48
the four ways00:19:49
and four key actions that he mentioned earlier that could attack Taiwan.00:19:52
He has mentioned these in the past,00:19:54
and this time it is no different from these four actions00:19:57
. In addition, I have seen00:19:59
some comments saying00:20:00
that he may have been lazy00:20:02
and not updated some parts,00:20:04
for example, in his The text mentions that00:20:05
while North Korea's relationship with China00:20:07
seems cold ,00:20:09
it doesn't00:20:10
actually00:20:11
include Kim Jong-un00:20:14
's participation in the Chinese military parade this September.00:20:16
Therefore, the relationship between North Korea and China00:20:18
remains extremely close.00:20:20
Another point00:20:21
worth noting is00:20:23
the text's specific mention of00:20:25
China00:20:27
possessing00:20:29
military capabilities capable of threatening the United States by 2027.00:20:33
This includes00:20:34
hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons00:20:37
, and their range.00:20:39
For the United States,00:20:41
everyone knows00:20:42
that aside from World War II00:20:43
and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor,00:20:46
no war00:20:47
has been fought on American soil. While00:20:50
the US has participated in many wars00:20:52
, none00:20:54
have been00:20:56
fought on American soil. Therefore,00:20:58
if the US considers00:21:00
China's military strength00:21:02
... When China's military strength is sufficient to threaten the US mainland,00:21:05
I think he00:21:08
will certainly make some references and adjustments to his strategy.00:21:11
For00:21:12
example, just the other day,00:21:14
Trump announced some00:21:15
kind of super-class destroyer.00:21:18
Some people may think he is just bragging and talking big00:21:20
about building a super-class destroyer00:21:22
, but to a certain extent00:21:23
, they genuinely believe00:21:25
that China's military strength00:21:27
has actually grown much more than that of the United States00:21:29
in recent years00:21:32
, so they also consider it a threat.00:21:34
Okay, so00:21:36
regarding Trump's view on the Taiwan Strait,00:21:40
I think00:21:41
the more the United States believes that China00:21:43
has a military threat to the United States,00:21:46
the less likely the United States00:21:48
is to substantially intervene in a war in the Taiwan Strait00:21:51
. If any war , friction, or conflict00:21:53
occurs in the Taiwan Strait00:21:56
, the United States will definitely protect itself.00:21:57
So this also aligns with the views00:21:59
of right-wing foundations00:22:00
like the Heritage Foundation.00:22:02
And once again00:22:03
, this... This is just a rehash of old clichés;00:22:06
their approach is the same:00:22:08
to turn Taiwan00:22:10
into a porcupine.00:22:12
So they keep00:22:14
selling weapons to Taiwan00:22:16
, constantly arming it.00:22:18
Their strategy00:22:21
is00:22:22
to turn Taiwan into a porcupine so00:22:24
that in the event of war00:22:26
, Taiwan can contain China00:22:30
and even deplete China's military power.00:22:33
So ,00:22:34
looking at this whole picture,00:22:38
Taiwan00:22:40
is truly still just a pawn and a tool.00:22:44
In recent years,00:22:45
it's become very clear00:22:46
that they want to turn Taiwan into a porcupine00:22:48
. On the other hand, what they care about most00:22:50
is Taiwan00:22:51
's semiconductor strength and supply chain.00:22:54
They want to gradually move this00:22:55
semiconductor industry supply chain00:22:57
out of Taiwan00:22:58
so that Taiwan can truly become a porcupine.00:23:00
Otherwise,00:23:01
how can they develop their AI? Right?00:23:02
How he develops his technology?00:23:04
Look at the whole process,00:23:06
it's exactly the same.00:23:07
And that includes00:23:08
Taiwan. You need to increase your defense spending.00:23:11
Our current defense spending00:23:13
as a percentage of GDP00:23:15
is higher than Japan's and South Korea's...00:23:17
and our00:23:20
percentage of total budget00:23:23
is higher than Israel's00:23:25
. Israel's is only...00:23:26
Next year, Israel's defense budget spending00:23:28
will only account for 14% of its total budget, while00:23:29
ours will be 30%...00:23:32
So today, turning Taiwan into a porcupine00:23:35
is just making Taiwan keep spending money—00:23:37
whose money is it spending? It's taxpayers' money—00:23:39
and constantly selling weapons to Taiwan.00:23:41
So I think, going back to00:23:44
what I just mentioned about CNN's list of00:23:45
the top ten global events00:23:47
to observe, what's worth observing00:23:50
is whether Trump00:23:54
will control Taiwan's destiny00:23:56
in the future. To put it bluntly,00:23:58
will Trump betray Taiwan?00:24:01
Okay, Trump and Xi Jinping are going to meet.00:24:02
They'll meet at least four times next year. Will00:24:04
these four meetings have any impact on Taiwan? The00:24:06
Washington Post's report that00:24:08
the US is about to sell us $11.1 billion worth of weapons00:24:10
is a correct correction00:24:11
, especially regarding00:24:13
the powerful HIMARS00:24:15
. However, less than 48 hours00:24:19
after the US announced the arms sale to Taiwan,00:24:20
China sold $11.8 billion in00:24:22
US00:24:23
Treasury00:24:25
bonds. So, is it a coincidence or intentional? Furthermore, US conservatives like Hung Wei just said that Taiwan should adopt a "porcupine strategy" and prepare for a protracted island war. They said00:24:26
we00:24:29
should fight00:24:32
a00:24:33
desperate00:24:35
battle00:24:37
here00:24:39
, and if we00:24:41
can't win on flat ground, we00:24:42
should fight in the mountains.00:24:43
Chiang Chi-chen said the US should...00:24:46
our00:24:47
increasing arms purchases should00:24:48
be included in trade.00:24:50
You can't say arms purchases don't count;00:24:51
we spend so much money on arms purchases.00:24:52
They should be included in the trade balance.00:24:53
And Congress can play the bad cop00:24:55
in tariff negotiations00:24:57
, right ?00:24:58
We can't allow you00:25:00
to loosen tariffs and then00:25:01
loosen our budget a little. It means we should take a00:25:03
break and come back.Description:
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